Micron’s run: from HBM competition to what multiple the business deserves after the cycle
Capacity crowding widened the Micron case beyond HBM; a higher multiple still depends on earnings and cash that survive the cycle.
Market stories
Software did not trade as one AI story
AI hit nine software stocks together; by October they had split along what each company could show in its own results.
Meta’s AI products still need to earn their keep
Meta’s ads are paying for AI; its new products have users but no revenue yet, against spending commitments that keep growing.
Optical demand is strong; future profits face harder tests
Laser scarcity has shown up in Lumentum’s margins; the bigger bets on packaging and trade policy are still forecasts.
Reddit’s ads are growing faster than its audience
Reddit’s ads grew fast while its US audience, still dependent on Google, stopped growing.
AI spending: four companies, different paths to payback
Four companies, one AI build-out, and very different amounts of cash left after paying for it.
Memory and storage: one AI cycle, four different businesses
Four memory makers rose and fell together in 2026; high-bandwidth memory share, contracts and new supply are what separate them.
One session, two ad-tech results, two separate questions
Same day, same AI advertising label: AppLovin was graded on a broken pattern, Unity on confirmed checks.
Optical demand held through LITE’s selloff
- Constructive optical-demand claims persisted during LITE’s decline.
- LITE sold off over the May 11–Jul 29 reviewed window.
- Reported margins would have tested scarcity: stronger pricing supported it; weakening margins challenged it.
Software’s AI debate kept reversing
- AI displacement fears and monetization evidence repeatedly changed the debate.
- IGV lost 3.6% from Jan 12 to Sep 11 despite sharp rebounds.
- Disclosed AI revenue would have supported monetization; rebounds without operating gains left displacement unresolved.
AppLovin and Unity after August earnings
- APP faced execution questions while Unity’s Grow and Vector progress drew attention.
- On Aug 6, APP fell 19.7% and U rose 15.1%.
- More advertisers would have supported AppLovin’s expansion; stalled sign-ups would have weakened it.
APP
U
QQQ
A higher target during SanDisk’s selloff
- An analyst raised SNDK’s price target on Jul 13.
- SNDK fell 56.5% from Jun 25 to Jul 29.
- Reported earnings growth would have supported the contract thesis; weaker delivery would have challenged it.
AI spending drew different market responses
- Microsoft’s cloud growth and Meta’s advertising results framed different AI payback debates.
- On Jul 30, MSFT rose 15.5% and META fell 8.0%.
- Revenue covering investment costs would have supported payback; rising costs without returns would have challenged it.
MSFT
META
QQQ