1. AI content expansion
- NVIDIA alongside Google broadens hyperscaler exposure and lowers dependence on a single AI customer.
- Higher PCB content per next-generation AI system could expand revenue per platform and support pricing power.
TTM
TTMI
USD 73.38
+7.74% · 1Y
Latest: bear
Price
Full synthesis
Viewpoint Synthesis
Bull Thesis
TTMI can compound through AI infrastructure content gains and defense demand, with customer wins and U.S. manufacturing positioning supporting a much higher earnings path.
2. Structural positioning
- U.S.-based advanced PCB capacity benefits as customers seek supply-chain resilience and onshoring.
3. Defense diversification and upside
- Defense exposure links roughly 40% of revenue to rising budgets and electronics content, diversifying AI demand.
- A path to over $10 FY28 EPS would materially exceed current Street expectations and expand valuation upside.
Bear Thesis
The AI growth case is vulnerable to customer timing and program volatility; recent execution slippage raises estimate risk and can cap the multiple.
1. Program timing threatens near-term estimates
- One of three higher-layer-count programs slipped, showing that concentrated launches can disrupt quarterly delivery.
- Missing the data-center guide triggered a sharp market repricing, signaling limited tolerance for execution misses.
2. Customer push-outs challenge demand visibility
- Reported TPU customer delays and cancellations turn customer concentration into an immediate demand overhang.
- The cited miss and program push-out reinforce that AI revenue timing remains difficult to forecast.
Opinion timeline
Opinion Timeline
Bull Plane
TIME
Bear Plane
No bull argument in this report.
2026-10-22
The company's stock declined significantly after its print, missing its data center guide for Q3.
2026-10-22
Back to thesis
Management attributed the miss to timing, with one of three higher-layer-count programs being pushed out.
2026-10-22
Back to thesis
Shorts reported that the earnings call flagged push-outs, delays, and cancellations from some TPU customers.
2026-10-22
Back to thesis
PCB maker TTMI -27.7% on its print, 920 in Slack here noting it “missed their DC guide for Q3. Said timing” with one of three higher-layer-count programs pushed out, and AB here hearing from shorts that the call flagged “some TPU guys cough cough Tan T...
2026-10-22
Back to thesis
The company recently won NVIDIA in its PCB segment, in addition to its flagship relationship with Google's TPU.
2026-05-22
Back to thesis
The company is exposed to three important structural mega-trends: AI Infra pricing power and content gains, being the only US-based advanced PCB manufacturer benefiting from continued onshoring of the supply chain, and its CBs being integrated into AI servers and networking switches with content scaling 4x-8x across NVIDIA's next-gen GPUs with pricing power.
2026-05-22
Back to thesis
The company benefits from the USA & Defense upcycle, which accounts for approximately 40% of revenues, driven by increasing DoD budgets, defense electronics content, and significant exposure to radars and missiles.
2026-05-22
Back to thesis
It is easy to project FY28 EPS of over $10, compared to the Street's estimate of approximately $6, which could lead to a share price of over $250.
2026-05-22
Back to thesis
2026-05-22
No bear argument in this report.
Sources and method
Research through 2026-10-22 · 2026-05-22 to 2026-10-22 · 2 source reports.
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