SNDK is converting AI-driven storage demand into exceptional profitability, with customer contracts and new flash use cases potentially making earnings less cyclical.
The premium earnings outlook remains exposed to slowing price gains, uneven demand, and contracts that may cap upside just as cycle expectations peak.
The company's F1Q revenue of $11.03B surpassed Street expectations of $10.74B and met the internal bogey of $10.9-11.2B.
The F2Q revenue guidance of $12.2-12.6B exceeded Street estimates of $12.08B and reached the top end of the internal bogey of $12.2-12.4B.
Datacenter revenue significantly beat expectations, growing 61% quarter-over-quarter to $4.80B, compared to the Street's $4.0B estimate.
Gross margin of 85.1% in F1Q beat Street expectations, although it missed the internal bogey.
The F2Q gross margin guidance of 84.5-85.5% was slightly above Street estimates of 84.7%.
EPS of $49.51 in F1Q beat Street estimates of $46.73 and was in line with the internal bogey of $48-50.
Operating expenses of $513M were below the guided range of $520-540M, contributing to a beat in operating margin.
The company bought back $5.0B in shares, indicating continued capital return to shareholders.
The F1Q gross margin of 85.1% missed the internal bogey of ~86%.
The F2Q gross margin guidance of 84.5-85.5% was significantly below the low end of the bull's desired range of 86.5-87.5%.
Edge and Consumer segments missed expectations, with Edge revenue at $5.83B missing Street's $6.08B and Consumer revenue at $397M missing Street's $584M.
Implied pricing for F1Q was approximately +8.6% quarter-over-quarter, which was below both Street consensus and the internal bogey.
The company reported no new NBM signings, maintaining 8 customers, which was below bulls' expectations for more than 8.
Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) of $88.9B were lower than the pro forma $91.1B reported in August.
Adjusted Free Cash Flow (FCF) of $5.70B missed Street expectations of $5.93B.
SNDK/MU +4% on the back of Hynix’s solid print that came above buyside bogeys on both #s and capital return (Kioxia +14% /Samsung +4% overnight). Software -1% with NOW -2% leading the way lower ahead of their print tonight (Bernstein put a damper on bulls h...
The company's memory products are performing strongly, with DRAM outperforming NAND and spot prices hitting new highs, indicating robust demand.
The company's stock was mixed, with sentiment suggesting that if Elon Musk can add significant capacity, the market might not be as tight as perceived.
SK Hynix is working with SanDisk, Google, and other partners to finalize the HBF 1.0 standard, a NAND-based technology targeting high capacity for AI inference.
HDDs and NAND bounced hardest (STX/WDC opened -8%/-7%, SNDK -5.5%), MU much less so. Near the bottom today, WDC/STX were trading at ~5x/7x ‘28 buyside numbers (assuming pricing reaches $30/TB) so definitely investors sharpening their r/r numbers here despit...
GS favors SNDK and SK Hynix for HBF leadership, with Samsung also well positioned; MU is a less direct beneficiary.
Memory lagged: MU -1%; SNDK -92bps; SKHY flat
Memory lagged again: SKHY -4.2%; SNDK -1.7%; MU +21bps. Korean chatter is similar to last quarter where mgmt making the sounds on the sell-side saying SKHY’s Q3 OP will land below the Street on an FX hit (MSD-HSD off ASPs) and that 2028’s wave of new clean...
Memory lagged: MU -1%; SNDK -92bps; SKHY flat
Agentic workloads create much larger memory requirements across HBM, DRAM, NAND, and HDD, making SNDK the clearest beneficiary as KV cache and suspended agent state spill into flash.
SNDK is viewed as the clearest beneficiary as KV cache and suspended agent state spill into flash, while WDC/STX benefit from logs/traces, P/NTAP from enterprise context storage, and DELL/HPE from higher CPU/DRAM/NAND content. Networking/connectivity names...
The company's stock performed well ahead of MU's earnings print, indicating positive sentiment in the memory sector.
The company is identified as the biggest beneficiary of long-running agents due to KV cache and suspended agent state spilling into flash.
The stock continues to be volatile after the CEO of Raspberry Pi indicated that NAND prices may be approaching their peak, suggesting the end of the memory super-cycle for non-volatile memory.
Rosenblatt initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $2,400 price target, anticipating AI's role in transforming NAND from a commodity to a system-critical component.
The analyst believes rising model sizes and inference intensity are enhancing NAND's value proposition, with Sandisk's BiCS8/BiCS10 roadmap supporting a favorable cost/performance position.
Management's FY28–30 framework projects mid/high-teens revenue growth, and new business-model agreements with eight major NAND customers covering an estimated 65% of FY28 production are expected to reduce historical cycle volatility.
Rosenblatt forecasts FY30 non-GAAP EPS to approach $300.
The stock is showing strong momentum, up 85% from recent lows, and is benefiting from the memory sector's recovery.
Sector was the standout today playing catch up to CPU names. Rosenblatt had a bullish initiation on SNDK, while Funda.AI was out on MU ahead of EPS on the 30th, saying memory pricing is more likely to settle into a higher, longer plateau than roll over shar...
The company's memory products underperformed, with some discussion from Asia suggesting Hynix management was attempting to lower expectations.
Memory underperformed with SNDK -1.4%/MU +2.4%/SKHY +75bps. Some talk out of Asia of Hynix mgmt trying to lower the bear because of x. We showed this chart below in our weekly yesterday which shows that even a significant amount of adoption likely isn’t a h...
Bulls remain optimistic due to higher-for-longer gross margins and capital return.
The stock is attempting to move above its 10-day and 20-day moving averages, which has historically been a signal for upcoming strength.
SNDK & MU trying to pop their heads above the 10d/20d MAs, which has usually been a decent signal for upcoming strength over the last couple of years.
Sentiment and positioning have significantly decreased compared to a few months ago.
Bears are still concerned about the slowing of 2nd derivative pricing and China supply risks.
A potential JV between SK Hynix, Intel, and hyperscalers would be a clear negative for the company.
Ardo Today at 1:56 AM my view: MU SNDK - clear negative, especially if a JV were to happen between hynix/intc/hyperscalers INTC - neutral / perhaps even negative; shows they cannot find better use for Ohio fab for either producing own CPUs or as a foundry;...
Memory slight underperformers (SKHY/MU flat; SNDK -70bps) after reutters report SK Hynix in talks with INTC about deal to make memory chips in US for the first time. 2030, but memory investors never like to hear the word supply.
NAND ASPs are pointing to a significant increase of +20-40% in Q3.
SNDK/MU: Hearing Clev pointing Q3 NAND/DRAM ASPs +20-40%/+20-25%, respectively SNDK/MU Clev Q3 NAND/DRAM ASP
The company faces a challenging pricing environment, with a significant portion of the business tied to prevailing market prices.
Memory weaker (MU/SKHY/SNDK -4-5%), potentially on the back of some Deepseek V4.1 improvements:
CFO Luis Visoso stated that new business models now cover 50% of bits this fiscal year and two-thirds in fiscal 2028, with approximately 80% gross margin at the floor, indicating strong profitability from these new models.
Two contracts have already been reopened by customers seeking more volume and longer duration, suggesting strong customer demand and commitment.
Supply growth is entirely node-driven with no wafer additions, and industry bit growth remains in the mid-to-high teens, indicating efficient capacity expansion and healthy market growth.
The CFO asserted that demand cannot exceed supply by definition, implying a balanced market.
The KV-cache demand model behind High-Bandwidth Flash has increased in every recent revision, with products expected in customers' hands in 2027, indicating growing demand for this technology.
The company used a significant portion of its free cash flow for buybacks, signaling confidence in its valuation and commitment to shareholder returns.
Memory mixed: SKHY +4%; SNDK -1% continues to underperform recently; MU flat
BE +5% leading the way higher following through on the Pelosi buy while memory (SNDK +4%) is following Asia up overnight.
There is less upside for WFE from HBM layer count/hybrid bonding, prompting modest price target cuts.
The stock is underperforming MU and SKHYNIX in memory, with the only heard reason being a mixed HBM presentation at Hot Chips.
The stock experienced weakness following a tepid HBM presentation at Hot Chips.
In early Tech trading, Semis -2% and software/internet flat. Memory following weakness Korea with SNDK -5% leading the way layer after a tepid HBF presentation at Hot Chips (we sent out full notes here last night in case you missed it). Optical also weaker...
Bank of America reported that NAND wafer prices rebounded sharply in early August, following a period of flat to slightly lower prices in Q2 2026, and an exceptionally strong rally in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
The company is a positive read-through from strong 2027 AI-server demand, with Vera Rubin potentially exceeding 50K racks and production ramping from late 2026.
MU: BofA Reiterates Buy and $1,550 PT, Arguing SNDK’s Framework Supports a Structural Re-Rating of Memory
BofA reiterates Buy and a $1,550 PT, arguing SanDisk’s new long-term model provides a useful framework for thinking about Micron as a structurally higher-earnings business rather than just a peak-cycle memory trade. Applying SNDK-like assumptions—~15% sales...
The stock rose after an analyst upgrade.
JPM initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a price target, citing that new business model contracts have structurally improved margin floors and reduced NAND cyclicality.
JPM noted that signed New Business Model contracts represent significant value and cover a substantial portion of future bits, supporting high gross and adjusted FCF margins through the cycle.
JPM believes AI inference, persistent KV-cache demand, and new flash technologies will drive a significant increase in NAND demand.
JPM suggested that returning 100% of excess free cash flow to shareholders could further amplify EPS growth.
Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating, highlighting management's commitment to return 100% of excess FCF through buybacks while maintaining disciplined capital expenditure as a major positive.
Morgan Stanley believes NAND shortages, stronger AI/data-center demand, and long-term agreements will maintain favorable market conditions for several years.
Morgan Stanley highlighted the company's capital-efficient BiCS roadmap and High Bandwidth Flash as additional upside drivers.
Morgan Stanley argued that NAND's increasing role in AI will complement rather than replace DRAM.
SNDK: JPM Initiates Overweight with $2,250 PT as LTAs Reset NAND Economics and AI Inference Expands the TAM
JPM initiates SNDK at Overweight with a Dec-27 price target of $2,250, saying SanDisk’s New Business Model contracts have structurally lifted the margin floor and reduced NAND cyclicality.
Argus upgraded SanDisk to Buy from Hold.
Cantor reiterated Overweight and a $2,900 price target, expecting the August 13 Analyst Day to highlight how New Business Model contracts have structurally improved NAND earnings visibility and could keep supply constrained through at least CY28.
Cantor expects more detail on NBM/LTA coverage, BiCS8/BiCS10, eSSD, and High Bandwidth Flash, and believes KV-cache and inference-driven storage could establish NAND as a genuine AI infrastructure bottleneck.
Cantor expects management to outline long-term GM/OM/FCF margins of roughly 70–85%/60–75%/40–55% and potentially commit around 50% of annual FCF to buybacks and dividends.
Bernstein maintains Outperform given LTA coverage and high gross margins.
The FMS conference highlighted growing interest in SNDK’s HBF architecture, which could deliver roughly 8x better capital efficiency than an HBM-only configuration at comparable token throughput.
The stock was upgraded to Buy at Argus, and Cantor reiterated its price target, expecting the analyst day to highlight improved NAND earnings visibility and supply constraints through CY28.
Compare that with the anemic follow-through in AI Semis: ANET following its big beat, STX, or ALAB selling off despite the big Sept Q guide. The weaker prints like INTC and SNDK also continue to struggle to find a bid.
The stock continues to struggle to find a bid after weaker prints, indicating persistent investor skepticism.
The stock is trading at a low valuation, approximately 5x a conservative EPS estimate of $230-$250, or 15x a $90 EPS run rate based on RPO.
NAND is becoming more strategically important, and better visibility and durability should lead to a higher multiple.
NAND pricing checks are improving in the near term, with positive momentum for TLC and QLC, and signs of spot pricing ticking up.
The company's long-term EPS target of $300 in CY27 is still achievable, and even a 6-7x multiple offers significant upside.
The contracted floor of 80% gross margin is significantly more durable than in previous NAND cycles.
The company signed five additional NBM agreements, bringing the total to 10, covering over 50% of FY27 bits and two-thirds of FY28 bits, with a weighted-average duration above four years.
Data Center revenue grew significantly, and management expects the NAND market to exceed $300B in CY26 and approach $500B in CY27, with Data Center increasing its share of TAM.
Customers are requesting more supply, and bits are expected to remain on allocation beyond CY27.
The company is deliberately carrying more inventory to support contracted commitments, which is bullish if it's a service buffer against demand.
QLC Stargate began shipping for revenue, adding a high-capacity AI-data-lake product.
The company is no longer merely an uncontracted, quarterly NAND pricing trade due to numerous agreements and financial guarantees.
Two existing customers expanded commitments shortly after signing, indicating faster-than-expected AI-inference storage requirements.
Even if contracted GM settles around 80%, it's a dramatically higher and more defensible through-cycle floor than historically.
Demand and product evidence strengthened, with Data Center now 38% of bits and TLC enterprise SSD demand scaling.
HBF, CMX, and KV Cache are potential additions to the AI memory hierarchy, not necessary assumptions for current earnings.
Mid-teens bit growth, disciplined capex, and a $15.5B buyback authorization create substantial FCF-per-share leverage.
The company missed both FQ4 and FQ1 revenue targets by a wide margin.
The softer margin guide and CEO's comments about reaching "cruising speed" and mid-80s GPM being a "fair return" suggest peak margins.
The narrative for memory stocks is harder now that the second derivative of pricing has rolled over and beats are smaller or nonexistent.
The F1Q midpoint for gross margin declines sequentially despite further pricing, and management's comments on mid-80s GM imply current spot margins are near the upper boundary.
By contracting more than half of FY27 supply around lower floor economics, the company may be exchanging upside sensitivity for visibility at the peak of industry pricing.
The rest of the portfolio still has meaningful cyclicality, with consumer revenue declining, higher prices shrinking TAM, and PC and smartphone units expected to fall.
Inventory is deliberately held near 170 days, component costs are rising, BiCS10 is several quarters from meaningful contribution, and HBF remains pre-commercial.
Familiar memory risks persist, including competitor reactions to profitability, Chinese suppliers gaining share, and underutilized capacity returning if AI capex or pricing slows.
NBMs protect against a normal downturn but do not eliminate customer-credit, mix, execution, or oversupply risk.
The last few days have dinged some AI favorite names which now look range bound near-term: WDC, SNDK, ALAB, AMD among others. Despite the LT bull cases remaining intact, this earnings season has seen a lot more dispersion and smaller beats than the early Ag...
The stock declined following disappointing results.
SNDK -7% / MU -1.3% after SNDK’s disappointing results. We covered our thoughts in the morning wrap here in case you missed it and some good discussion in Slack here
The company reported five new business wins, including three with new customers, since the last quarter.
The company's reported $90B in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) exceeded expectations of $70B.
Long-term agreements are becoming a larger part of the business mix.
The company's fourth-quarter and first-quarter revenue and EPS guidance significantly undershot expectations.
The company's NAND announcements, particularly regarding HBF technology, suggest a significant shift in memory architecture that could consume NAND wafers at premium pricing, tightening the commodity flash market.
HBF technology offers significantly higher capacity per stack compared to HBM4, making it ideal for weight storage in large AI models.
HBF could enable a topology change by allowing entire AI models to reside on a single package, eliminating distributed and parallel communication overhead.
HBF's on-package, high-bandwidth memory could replace CPU-attached DDR5 and warm DRAM pools by offering superior performance without host intervention.
The UCle interface allows for flexible integration with custom ASICs, CPUs, and non-NVDA silicon, broadening its applicability.
Both architectural branches of AI models, whether capacity-heavy or weight-heavy, route into HBF, indicating its broad utility.
The stock showed strong outperformance compared to other memory companies, ahead of a conference expected to highlight the increasing strategic importance of SSDs in data centers.
The analyst sides with the bulls, believing that contract pricing is still rising, long-term agreements indicate sustained strength, valuation is attractive, supply/demand remains in undersupply, and the strategic value in data centers is increasing.
Bears point to a potential rollover in second derivative pricing, future Chinese capacity coming online, and pricing nearing consumer elasticity limits.
The stock was up significantly, indicating it was one of Leopold Aschenbrenner's largest holdings that benefited from the unwinding of his fund's positions.
US names following earlier with SNDK/MU/WDC/STX -7% early. Many other names down 4-5% as momentum looks to take another hit early. Good chart from our friends at Jefferies showing the magnitude of the momentum unwind, the worst going back to 2000:
The stock presents a potential short-term long trade opportunity due to a decent risk/reward profile and extreme negative sentiment, especially with the upcoming FMS memory conference where KV cache offload will be a key discussion point.
Memory stocks, including SNDK, suffered due to Trendforce data indicating slowing ASP increases for NAND in Q3 compared to Q2, and rumors circulating about NAND.
The stock has fallen significantly from its peak, breaking below a previously considered decent risk/reward level, and continues to suffer from negative sentiment post-MU earnings due to investor concerns about a lack of earnings upside and news noise.
SNDK's high beta in the semi trade and its crowded positioning have made it particularly vulnerable to the recent unwind.
Not a good day for memory with SNDK -11%, SKHY -8%, MU -2% after Chinese DRAM maker CXMT was +466% overnight.
Hard looking at the GPL log chart on Bloomberg, but SNDK now down close to about 50% from the peak at sitting at 61.8% fib retracement on the chart and just blew past what we thought was a decent r/r near $1,500. Memory trade continues to suffer from downti...
The long-term bull case for memory remains intact, with no long-term bulls shaken by recent developments.
The analyst prefers this stock over MU for the long-term memory bull case.
SNDK +5/MU +5% - This chart was getting passed around from a mid-day note by Shawn Kim:
Memory sentiment has declined due to concerns about a lack of remaining upside in stocks and pricing, flat spot prices, a negative inflection in contract prices, and increasing supply from China.
The stock could be range-bound in the near term, requiring careful consideration for entry points.
Despite NVDA being flat for 9 months, we’ve had some decent PnL playing some short-term narrative shifts along the way. Still: it’s NVDA, and as I told a buddy of mine this afternoon — the opportunity cost of putting that $ into NVDA over the past year inst...
New business model agreements are creating a structural shift towards greater pricing and profit visibility, moving away from commodity-driven earnings.
The signed deals represent a substantial amount of RPO, with potential for additional contracts to further increase secured commitments.
These agreements could underpin a significant portion of FY27 EPS, with the remaining benefiting from tighter NAND supply and higher merchant pricing.
The company's valuation can re-rate as investors gain confidence in a more durable earnings profile.
The company is positioned as a key technology and memory enabler in the AI data center market.
ISI issued a positive report on NAND, raising the price target for the company and highlighting that its NBMs (LTAs) create a structural shift warranting a higher multiple.
Memory names were the weakest, with the stock down 5% as Asian names experienced double-digit declines.
Korea fell 9% and is dragging down semis -3% with it early while Software +50bps and Internet +10bps are green. Memory names the weakest as Asian names were all down double digits: SNDK/WDC/MU/STX -5%.
The stock experienced a significant decline.
The stock bounced nicely after hitting a key support level, suggesting a strong risk/reward profile for bulls.
The stock hitting $1,500 intraday suggests a favorable risk/reward for aggressive positioning, especially when considering the multiple bears typically apply to its CY27 EPS.
The stock was a notable underperformer with no specific news driving the decline.
The stock underperformed the broader semiconductor market, failing to turn green on a day when semis were up 2%.
In the U.S., Software +1% outperforming Semis -1% early with the former helped by a few upgrades from Difucci at Guggenheim (CRM, NOW, CHKP). Memory following Korea memory names lower (SNDK -5%, MU -3%). HDDs and Semicap also weak to start the new month.
Bernstein believes investors are underestimating how new long-term agreements (LTAs) fundamentally improve earnings durability by enhancing pricing stability and supporting higher valuation multiples.
Bernstein's downside analysis suggests that even under a severe downturn, FY30 EPS would still be approximately $214 with LTAs, significantly higher than without them, indicating the protective nature of these agreements.
Jefferies raised its price target, arguing that the company's enterprise SSD business is gaining traction faster than expected, with its eSSD revenue share doubling in the latest quarter.
The firm believes SanDisk can reclaim its historical mid-teens market share by ramping TLC products, launching Stargate QLC eSSDs, and benefiting from growing demand for higher-endurance SLC NAND solutions.
SanDisk is speeding up the development of High Bandwidth Flash (HBF), a next-generation architecture that vertically stacks NAND, and is advancing additional memory concepts aimed at addressing structural capacity constraints.
A U.S. patent filed by SanDisk describes a proposed design that integrates a multi-core processor directly onto a CBA (CMOS Bonded to Array) memory tile, which combines a large NAND flash array with a CMOS logic layer, and is then mounted on an interposer with HBM stacks.
The stock was strong ahead of MU’s earnings, with positive pricing checks circulating, including Jefferies' expectation of DRAM pricing increasing 30% in Q3 and another 40% in Q4, exceeding buy-side expectations.
Memory strong with MU +7% and SNDK +4% ahead of MU’s earnings on Wednesday as more positive pricing checks make the rounds — this time it was Jefferies saying they see DRAM pricing increasing 30% in Q3 and another 40% in Q4, which is above where the 20 and...
(MU/SNDK +2-3%; INTC/AMD/ARM +2-3%).
The stock was mixed within the memory sector.
Memory mixed with SNDK -1.5% but MU +2%.
The company's stock showed strength, contributing to the overall market's upward movement.
In Techlandia, strength in semis continues although more bifurcated this morning with HDDs/Memory leading us higher (WDC/STX +8-10%) and SNDK/MU +2-3% while CPU names softer (ARM -2%, INTC -1% although AMD +50bps)
The company locked customers into buying minimum amounts of NAND over 3-5 years through contracts worth ~$41.6B in minimum commitments, providing a cushion against market fluctuations.
Customers put up ~$11B in financial guarantees, about 16% of the contract value, which they forfeit if they don't buy what they promised, providing a strong incentive for customers to fulfill their commitments.
The company is trading at 7x projected buyside EPS of $300+, which is a lower multiple compared to HDD stocks, suggesting it could be undervalued.
The $70 for WDC and $100 for STX doesn’t assume any incremental buybacks from increased FCF. That means both stocks trading at sub 10x those numbers…we think HDD stocks will follow SNDK to new all-time highs in short order and probably have more “juice” near-term as...
Memory strong as well: MU +11% and SNDK +6%. Alethia and RBC had positive notes on MU raising PT to $1,600 and $1,200 arguing memory is becoming critical in Ai systems and DRAM cycle has plenty of room to run.
Long-term agreements (LTAs) are a cushion, not a shield, as customers might forfeit the 16% penalty and buy cheaper NAND on the open market if prices drop significantly.
Edge is raising prices again, with Q3 server DRAM now expected to increase by 15-20% compared to the prior expectation of 6-8%.
In Tech, semis are leading the way higher with INTC (+5%) up on a dbl ug at BofA, Memory following Asia strength overnight (SNDK/MU +3-5%), and semicaps looking to be the first AI semi group to be regaining 52wk highs (ASML/AMAT +5%).
The company hit new all-time highs, indicating strong market performance.
The NAND story has improved, especially relative to DRAM, which is a positive for the company.
The company has shown strong downside vs. upside beta, outperforming significantly during a pullback and now leading higher.
The narrative and numbers for the company have improved, and it now has more institutional support despite a significant rally year-to-date.
In Tech, Semis +8% led the way higher with SOX crossing back above ST moving averages. Despite the index still being 3-4% below its highs, we’re already seeing some individual names/themes breakout: Semicap continues its strength with names like LRCX, AMAT...
Bernstein remains highly constructive on memory and storage, arguing AI is creating a large and unprecedented demand surge across DRAM, NAND, and HDD. Datacenter customers now dominate demand for memory and storage markets, making pricing less cyclical and more structurally supported than in prior cycles. While the DRAM thesis has largely played out, NAND is earlier in its cycle and offers greater upside given improving supply discipline and growing AI-related demand. Favorable long-term contract structures, including pricing protections, prepayments, and take-or-pay agreements, further reduce cyclicality. Bernstein’s preferred way to express the theme remains storage, particularly SNDK.
SNDK +30bps outperforming MU -1.4%. We had some notes yesterday around why the SoCAMM DRAM cuts are actually bullish NAND.
The company's new business models, including long-term agreements (LTAs) with fixed price components, ensure consistent margins even at lower prices, which is a positive for financial stability.
The new business models are changing the trajectory of the business in a very positive way, fostering strong, mutually beneficial relationships with customers.
The company has successfully signed five LTA deals and is in ongoing negotiations for more, indicating strong customer adoption of the new business model across various segments.
The market for NAND is experiencing sustained mid to high teens growth, significantly boosted by AI demand, particularly as AI inference becomes a major driver for NAND consumption in data centers.
NAND is positioned as the most scalable semiconductor technology, making it crucial for economically scaling AI architectures, especially with the increasing demand for storage in inference applications.
The enterprise SSD business has grown significantly, increasing 7x year-over-year and now representing almost 25% of revenue, driven by investments in building a robust product portfolio.
The company is expanding its enterprise SSD portfolio with a new storage-based capacity product, which is expected to drive further growth in the data center mix.
The company is developing High-Bandwidth Flash (HBF) with a focus on higher bandwidth and endurance, addressing the memory-bound nature of AI inference and aiming for system-level integration.
The company is actively building the die and controller for HBF, with products expected to be available next year, and sees significant tailwinds from larger AI models and context lengths.
The company aims to achieve fair pricing, reduce market volatility, and grow its business, leveraging its built-in growth lever of mid to high teens bit growth annually.
The company is strategically allocating wafer production to maintain a balanced portfolio across segments, prioritizing long-term sustainability over short-term maximization.
The company is continuously adding capacity, growing in the mid to high teens, and has made cost-efficient transitions in its BiCS technology, planning for future node transitions.
The company has made strategic investments, including in Nanya for DRAM access, extended its JV agreement, paid down $2 billion in debt, and announced a $6 billion share buyback program, demonstrating strong capital allocation.
The company's consistent execution and transparent strategy, particularly with LTAs and enterprise SSDs, have led to increased investor confidence and a significant re-rating of its valuation.
The company's long-term investment in enterprise SSDs, driven by a new management team with enterprise background and internal expertise, is now yielding great products and market penetration.
Cantor reiterated Overweight ratings and Top Pick status on SNDK, raising its price target, as it believes the memory cycle is structurally different from prior upcycles. The firm expects DRAM and NAND to remain undersupplied through CY27 due to robust AI-related demand, emerging CPU-driven memory growth, and an inability to add capacity fast enough. Growing adoption of LTAs, covering roughly 50% of industry bits by year-end with prepayments and pricing corridors, improves visibility and reduces cyclicality. Stronger-for-longer pricing assumptions led to raised CY26/CY27 estimates, with further upside expected if pricing accelerates beyond current expectations.
BofA reiterated Buy on SNDK and raised its price target, arguing NAND supply-demand conditions remain tight and pricing should stay strong through 2027. The firm highlighted SanDisk’s new business model (NBM) contracts, which already cover more than one-third of FY27 revenue and include pricing floors, financial guarantees, and prepayments that improve earnings visibility and reduce cyclicality. BofA expects NAND pricing to continue rising through 2026 with meaningful supply additions unlikely before 2028/29, and believes the growing use of NBMs could fundamentally improve the industry’s long-term profitability profile. The analyst raised FY27 revenue and EPS estimates materially, citing stronger pricing and sustained demand trends.
Mizuho sees growing TPU, OpenAI, and MTIA deployments as incrementally positive for memory and storage demand, reinforcing its bullish view on SNDK.
MU/SNDK: Cantor Raises PTs Again, Says LTAs and Structural Undersupply Are Rewriting the Memory Playbook
Cantor reiterated Overweight ratings and Top Pick status on MU and SNDK, raising PTs to $1,500 and $2,900, respectively, as it becomes increasingly convinced the
Memory stocks, including SNDK, are bouncing back, with the street defending the sector given recent SoCAMM reductions at NVDA. Analysts expect no meaningful reduction in overall SoCAMM demand as memory suppliers remain capacity constrained and Nvidia prioritizes shipment volume, which also helps NAND demand. With less DRAM on board following cuts, the CPU tier now maxes out at smaller batch sizes, pushing near-real-time workloads onto NVMe offloading earlier than planned, increasing NAND demand through NVDA’s Context Memory eXtension (CMX) technology.
Memory bouncing back nicely with MU +9% and SNDK +5% as street was out defending what was obvious late last week given the SoCAMM reductions at NVDA. Citi anod others said they expect no meaningful reduction in overall SoCAMM demand as memory suppliers rema...
Memory: Hearing Cleveland positive as they raise ASPs on SNDK and MU citing strong demand/pricing, calling out LTAs for SNDK well above current market prices (near 50c/GB)
Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $1,750 from $1,100, driven by significantly higher DRAM and NAND pricing assumptions.
Supply-chain checks indicate DRAM pricing rising roughly 40% quarter-over-quarter in May and another 20%+ in August, with no near-term fix to industry shortages.
Morgan Stanley lifted CY27 EPS estimates by 24%, citing stronger pricing, expanding margins, and accelerating demand from AI and hyperscale customers.
The stock remains inexpensive at sub-10x CY27 earnings despite a multi-year favorable supply-demand backdrop, with multiple expansion expected to be the larger driver of upside.
MU/SNDK: Morgan Stanley Raises PTs Sharply on Higher Memory Pricing, Sees Supply Tightness Lasting 2-3 More Years
Morgan Stanley raised its PTs on MU to $1,050 from $520 and SNDK to $1,750 from $1,100, driven by significantly higher DRAM and NAND pricing assumptions. The firm’s supply-chain checks point to DRAM pricing rising roughly 40% q/q in May and another 20%+ in...
The company's stock was negatively impacted by SK Hynix's announcement to double its capacity, raising concerns about potential hardware risks and increased competition.
MU +3% / SNDK -2.5% as SK Hynix said they planned to 2x capacity. Good discussion here in Slack on potential hardware risks
TD Cowen came away constructive on the company after management highlighted that roughly 30% of next year’s capacity is already locked under long-term agreements, with a goal of increasing that percentage over time.
The firm noted the gross margin floor embedded in those contracts appears meaningfully higher than what its channel checks suggest for DRAM suppliers, estimating an ~80% floor for the company versus ~60% in DRAM.
Cowen argues that with this type of margin protection, durability of pricing and contract structure matters more than continued NAND price increases.
Memory: Mizuho Raises PTs Across MU/SNDK/ARM/DELL/ON on Agentic AI + HBM Tightness
Barclays upgraded the company to Overweight and raised its PT, arguing multi-year LTAs with embedded financial guarantees/prepayments are transforming NAND from a cyclical commodity market into a more visible, contract-driven business.
The firm highlighted persistent supply/demand tightness through CY27, stronger pricing durability, and the company’s new business model structure with clearer RPO/financial visibility.
Barclays believes NAND pricing leverage remains materially underappreciated, with NAND ASPs already up >250% Y/Y and margins potentially sustaining in the high-70%s through cycle.
Memory stocks generally outperformed after Barclays' upgrade of SNDK.
Barclays reiterated bullish talking points regarding LTA contract structures increasingly resembling infrastructure-style recurring revenue frameworks.
SNDK lower highs on negative RSI divergence (HDDs, MU, INTC and a lot of others in the above list look similar):
Memory underperformed (MU -1.4%/ SNDK -4.5%) as Samsung strike gets resolved (means no supply disruption there) and some Asian press had some things to say about Chinese Memory players. Here’s cwnewsroom via Jukan:
The company is increasingly focused on transforming NAND into a more durable and profitable business through long-term supply agreements and disciplined capacity growth.
New business models with hyperscalers, spanning 1-5 years, include fixed pricing, committed volumes, and financial guarantees, with one customer agreement involving $400 million in prepayments and minimum contractual revenue of $42 billion.
AI inference demand is a major long-term tailwind for NAND, with enterprise SSDs increasingly displacing HDDs in AI storage hierarchies due to lower power consumption and faster response times.
The company continues to invest heavily in BiCS scaling and high-capacity enterprise SSDs.
The company exhibited lower highs on negative RSI divergence, similar to other memory and HDD names.
The company underperformed as the Samsung strike was resolved, removing concerns about supply disruption, and due to Asian press commentary on Chinese memory players.
SNDK lower highs on negative RSI divergence (HDDs, MU, INTC and a lot of others in the above list look similar):
Memory underperformed (MU -1.4%/ SNDK -4.5%) as Samsung strike gets resolved (means no supply disruption there) and some Asian press had some things to say about Chinese Memory players. Here’s cwnewsroom via Jukan:
Citi raised its price target sharply due to strong NAND pricing, long-term agreements (LTAs), and AI-driven demand.
The firm highlights ASPs more than doubling quarter-over-quarter at Kioxia, continued supply discipline, and growing LTA adoption with financial guarantees that improve earnings durability and visibility.
The firm sees continued upside from hyperscaler AI inference demand, enterprise SSD growth, and the company's $6B buyback authorization, while materially increasing NAND ASP assumptions through CY26/CY27.
The memory sector, including the company, showed strength, with the stock up 3.75% ahead of its appearance at the JPM TMT conference.
Citi raised its price target for the company, highlighting a more than doubling of ASPs quarter-over-quarter at Kioxia, continued supply discipline, and increasing adoption of long-term agreements with financial guarantees, which enhance earnings durability and visibility.
Memory strong (MU +2.5%/SNDK +3.75%) as both are at JPM TMT’s conference tomorrow. Citi raised SNDK PT to $2k+highlighting ASPs more than doubling q/q at Kioxia, continued supply discipline, and growing LTA adoption with financial guarantees that improve ea...
AI data centers still lack a cost case to replace HDDs with SSDs, as the per-GB cost gap between NAND and HDDs has widened to about 20 to 25 times, far above the 2 to 3 times threshold needed for major cloud service providers to switch on total cost of ownership grounds.
The widening price gap is also pushing AI data center operators to reassess memory architectures, with some demand likely shifting back from NAND to HDDs.
NAND demand is not evenly spread across all nodes, and the latest-node capacity needed for AI workloads accounts for only about 30% to 35% of total industry output due to underinvestment in capex.
MU/SNDK on Wednesday. Rest of schedule below the fold.
SNDK -5% despite Kioxia being limit up although finished well off the lows; MU -6%. Both companies will be at JPM on Wednesday.
Competitors are aggressively adding DRAM capacity, which could pressure the market.
Slowing channel and retail demand for NAND poses a risk due to high inventory levels.
SNDK is highly exposed to the weaker consumer segment compared to enterprise-focused peers.
Memory weaker ahead of Kioxia’s print abroad: SNDK -4.5% / MU -3.5%. A couple negative things we called out in our morning note:
The stock experienced a negative movement due to weaker memory market conditions ahead of Kioxia's print abroad.
The company is more exposed to the consumer market compared to Kioxia, which is more exposed to enterprise, making it vulnerable to slowing channel/retail/consumer demand for NAND.
Memory weaker ahead of Kioxia’s print abroad: SNDK -4.5% / MU -3.5%. A couple negative things we called out in our morning note:
The stock was down early in pre-market trading, aligning with a broader weakness in tech semiconductors following a decline in the Korean market.
In Tech semis -2% following Korea weaker early in the pre market while sw the main outperformer. Recent AI leaders all down early: SNDK/MU -3%, INTC -5%,
The stock showed weakness following overnight trends in Korea's memory market.
Memory weaker with SNDK -6% and MU 3.6% following the weakness in Korea overnight…not a ton of news here.
The stock was strong early, leading the way higher in AI semiconductors.
In tech land, HUBS -22% blow up showing app sw not in same league as consumption sw after DDOG’s beat yesterday, AKAM rallying on a big deal, NET down on an expects miss, MCHP the latest analog to beat, CRWV down on a weaker guide, ABNB looks solid, QCOM co...
The stock lagged behind other memory companies, indicating weaker performance.
Memory names are leading the market higher, with the stock up double digits.
The stock quickly recovered from an initial dip post-earnings, turning positive during the trading day.
Charts are being bought aggressively on any mini-pull back (AVGO, LITE, AMD), plenty of names breaking out to new highs, beats are following through to the upside (NOK, STX, QCOM, WDC, TXN, VRT, INTC), and misses are being bought up (CLS, TER, GLW, ON, AMZN...
Memory names continue to lead the way higher with SNDK/MU up double digits as INTC +13% gets close to meme territory following news AAPL is looking to potentially use them as a foundry partne. Stocks are no longer even waiting for T+1 to go red to green - j...
The company's revenue and EPS significantly exceeded Street expectations, driven by strong pricing and a favorable mix shift.
The company provided a strong FQ4 guide for revenue, EPS, and gross margin, indicating continued positive momentum.
The disclosure of five signed multi-year partnerships, with substantial minimum contractual revenue and financial guarantees, suggests improved revenue predictability and reduced cyclicality.
Management believes the high gross margins are sustainable, supported by fair-value economics in new business models.
Data center revenue experienced significant growth, driven by demand for TLC-based eSSD and the upcoming QLC Stargate, with management raising its CY26 data-center growth view.
The company is benefiting from structural demand for low-latency flash in AI inference, KV cache, and other AI workloads, leading to strong data center revenue growth and customer commitments.
Multi-year agreements with financial guarantees provide tangible evidence that the business model is becoming more durable and less cyclical, potentially leading to a higher valuation multiple.
The company announced a $6 billion share buyback program.
Despite beating Street estimates, the company missed elevated buyside expectations for the June quarter guide on EPS and gross margin.
The increasing amount of long-term agreements (LTAs) could cap peak-cycle EPS and gross margin upside if NAND pricing continues to rise significantly.
Bears argue that the current quarter may represent peak NAND pricing, and the new business models might not truly hold through a downturn, given that revenue growth was primarily driven by ASPs rather than bit volume.
The June guide, while above Street, was below the most elevated buyside expectations, and the LTA structure might limit upside in a rising pricing market.
If customers are locking in fixed or semi-fixed prices near current levels, the company might be trading away peak-cycle optionality for durability, which could be detrimental to the bull-bull EPS case.
SNDK/WDC missed heightened expectations but not much in those prints to shake bulls. We go over everything below then get to the usual…
Morgan Stanley raised its price target due to sustained NAND pricing momentum, with Q2 ASPs tracking +90–100% QoQ, supported by tight supply and strength in client SSDs.
Estimates for SanDisk are moving materially higher, with long-term agreements and prepayments reinforcing durability beyond the near term.
Industry conditions continue to improve with upside tied to enterprise demand and pricing discipline.
Melius initiated coverage with a Buy rating.
Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight and raised its price target due to broad-based demand and sold-out conditions driving strong NAND pricing momentum, with supply tightness expected to extend into CY28.
Potential long-term agreements could structurally improve pricing visibility and economics, supporting estimates materially above consensus.
The raised revenue/EPS outlook reflects sustained pricing power across hyperscale, consumer, and client markets.
Cantor reiterated Overweight, citing durable cycle tailwinds and SanDisk as a top pick.
The stock saw strong performance, breaking through the $1,000 mark, driven by positive sentiment around HBM pricing.
Morgan Stanley and Cantor were bullish, raising their price targets and highlighting potential for upside in numbers, long-term agreements, better pricing, improved product mix, and seasonality.
Melius initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a 2-year target, believing the AI memory cycle could continue through the end of the decade, leading to higher market valuation for the durability of margin and demand profiles in HBM, DRAM, and NAND markets.
In Tech land, semis broke their 18-day win streak although plenty of names were green on my screen. The early morning semi swoon was catalyzed by a POET -50% blow up early morning, one of retail’s favorite “undiscovered” optical plays after MRVL pulled a pu...
SNDK +8% slicing through $1k / MU +5% strong today: On DRAM, heard Asia chatter around HBM pricing being better than expected. Morgan Stanley and Cantor were bullish on SNDK raising PT (MS to $1k and Cantor to $1.4k) both pointing out the usual goodness: #s...
We initiate coverage of Micron (MU) and Sandisk (SNDK) with Buy ratings and a view that the AI memory cycle could keep going through the end of the decade and that the market will eventually be willing to pay more for the unusual durability of the margin an...
GF upgraded the stock to Buy and raised its price target to $1,277, stating that tightening NAND supply and accelerating ASPs (+70% in FY1Q, +90–100% in FY2Q) position SNDK for strong FY3Q results and upside guidance, with revenue ~$4.9B and FY4Q potentially >$10B at >84% OPM.
The analyst notes demand strength is broadening beyond enterprise into consumer, with smartphone pricing rising to ~$0.25/GB and eSSD at ~$0.35–0.37/GB driving ~90% QoQ blended ASP growth.
AI-driven KV cache demand (~100EB in 2027, potentially conservative) and constrained supply support a multi-year favorable pricing cycle.
GF believes SNDK is undervalued compared to peers (3.4x vs. MU at 4.3x FY27E P/E) with structural upside from NAND’s growing share in AI infrastructure.
BofA reiterated a Buy rating and raised its price target, expecting a beat-and-raise scenario as NAND pricing strengthens due to tight supply/demand.
The firm highlights a structural shift toward data center demand (AI inference) supporting more durable pricing, while increasing use of long-term contracts should smooth volatility and improve margin visibility.
Morgan Stanley favors the company as a cleaner way to play the CPU strength trend, citing valuation and upside in memory.
Morgan Stanley says INTC and AMD should benefit from improving CPU demand driven by agentic AI, but sees memory as the cleaner way to play the trend, favoring MU and SNDK on valuation and upside. The firm raises INTC PT to $56 and estimates on stronger serv...
The analyst heard positive feedback from Clev, indicating that average selling prices are being raised in the second half of the year, driven by KV Cache/VR ramp.
Cleveland was positive on the company, raising its Q2 and 2H numbers as long-term agreements continue to increase.
The stock is taking a breather as the risk/reward is no longer as attractive after a massive month-to-date run.
2i PINS , SNAP , UBER, TTD, WIX #q We're not reading too much into the narratives we heard out there today trying to explain software vS. semi outperformance: "omg, what did Jensen say on Dwarkesh?" "ASML sell the news what does is NAND this mean for TSM" "...
The company is a key beneficiary of a more durable, AI-driven NAND cycle, supported by constrained supply and long-term cloud contracts.
Multiple upside levers include ASP tailwinds, a mix shift toward enterprise SSD/data center workloads, and structurally higher margins/free cash flow from improved supply-demand dynamics and customer mix.
The company has potential EPS power exceeding $130 longer term, driven by stronger pricing, cost reductions, and capital returns, with the current setup offering both near-term estimate upside and long-term multiple expansion.
Mizuho reiterated Outperform and raised its price target, citing tight NAND/HDD supply driving pricing through 1H27E.
The KVCache ramp is driving NAND demand as eSSDs deliver significantly higher read/write speeds than HDDs and contain more NAND content in inference racks compared to training-only AI racks.
The upcoming High Bandwidth Flash (HBF) in 2H26E, offering 6x HBM capacity at 100x TLC SSD bandwidth, could create new NAND supply constraints as 16-layer SLC-NAND stacks consume conventional capacity.
Memory/Storage: Mizuho Raises PTs Across MU/SNDK/STX/WDC — KVCache, QLC eSSDs and HBF Drive Inference Storage Inflection
Stronger-than-expected NAND pricing is driving significant estimate upside, leading to a raised price target.
Fears regarding TurboQuant are overdone, as efficiency gains are likely to increase demand.
The stock is undervalued relative to its cycle durability and earnings power, presenting asymmetric upside.
Another firm also raised its price target, indicating a growing positive sentiment.
Memory names leading the way higher (SNDK/MU +9%) but plenty of names up 5%+ across the board.
The stock experienced a significant decline in early trading.
The stock was leading early with other AI names.
Memory remains structurally tight, with AI-driven demand sustaining supply/demand imbalance and supporting higher pricing for DRAM and NAND over the next 2-3 years.
Hyperscale/AI datacenter demand is receiving priority allocation, and suppliers are shifting mix toward higher-value segments, driving margin expansion.
DRAM pricing is accelerating sharply while bit supply remains constrained, reinforcing favorable pricing dynamics.
WDC/STX/SNDK: Bernstein Upgrades WDC to Outperform, Says TurboQuant Selloff Overdone — Zero Impact on HDD, Negligible on NAND
The company's stock saw a preference shift towards NAND from investors, which provided additional momentum.
The risk/reward at $600 was considered too compelling to ignore when the market became risk-on.
The discontinuation of SLC and MLC by Kioxia also contributed to the positive movement.
The narrative continues to shift in favor of NAND, which is holding up better than DDR5 spot prices.
The stock was down, though less severely than MU, as the memory trade experiences turbulence.
SNDK -7% as spread here now approaching double digits since MU’s earnings and we sense the narrative continues to shift in favor of NAND (a shift that started 2-3 weeks ago). A lot of talk on X over the weekend about declines in DDR5 prices, mainly driven b...
FundaAI views KV cache compression as supportive of sustained memory demand, as efficiency gains are typically reinvested into more state, longer context, and higher concurrency, rather than signaling structural demand erosion.
BofA reiterated its Buy rating, reinforcing confidence in durable NAND demand from AI inference and hyperscalers, with no incremental capacity beyond high-teens supply growth through 2026/27.
Rising interest in long-term supply deals with hybrid pricing supports improved visibility and reduced cyclicality, alongside a mix shift toward higher-margin SSDs into CY26+.
On TurboQuant, BofA believes efficiency gains should boost hyperscaler ROI and drive incremental demand, not reduce it.
Morgan Stanley believes the memory selloff is overdone, as AI demand makes the current cycle different, with memory increasingly becoming the primary constraint on AI demand.
AI is consuming so much DRAM that it is crowding out PC and smartphone supply, cloud customers are paying expedite premiums, and HBM4 complexity will absorb new capacity.
Google's TurboQuant KV cache optimization is an evolutionary development with no surprises for memory, as the 6x gain applies only to KV cache, not total memory, and there is no evidence of universal demand reduction.
The company is investing in Nanya Technology and entering a multi-year supply arrangement to support its long-term DRAM sourcing strategy.
Funda AI projects strong EPS for CY26/CY27 based on supply chain checks.
The MU print indicated NAND upside, and the print, along with investor conversations, clarified that SNDK has more room for earnings revisions and GM upside at this point in the cycle.
Investors are shifting preference towards NAND over DRAM due to better pricing checks.
The potential for re-rating is greater for SNDK, as it is typically viewed as the most cyclical and lowest quality in the group, meaning the magnitude of narrative shift is greatest with NAND becoming a more integral part of data center architecture.
An analyst firm projected $150+ / $240 EPS for CY26/CY27.
In particular - as we mentioned in our morning wrap - we preferSNDK +2.5% even more after the MU print as 1) MU print pointed out NAND upside and 2) the print — and overnight conversations among investors — made clear that SNDK still has more room for earni...
Clev was positive on the stock, raising numbers due to stronger pricing checks, indicating a meaningful ASP step-up in June and an even larger move in March.
Checks suggest March ASP increases of 70-100%, with some even higher, though early June shows slightly below that range.
The stock experienced a strong rebound, outperforming other memory companies.
AI infrastructure led the tape: Memory Exposed +7%, Optical +6.6%, Google AI Infra +6.2% with a strong bid across AI names and several like LITE, BE, SNDK, VRT up double digits. Software lagged and the perceived “safe havens” like SPOT -3.5% underperformed.
SNDK +12% with a nice bounce, strongest out of the memory group although rest were also strong with MU +5% despite press reports out of Asia they lost out on HBM4 in Vera Rubin (debate how true this is); STX/WDC +6-7%
The stock experienced weakness along with other memory and HDD names.
The company significantly exceeded its March quarter guidance, with revenue and EPS substantially higher than Street and internal expectations, driven by strong ASPs despite low bit growth.
Guidance for FQ3 was exceptionally strong, indicating a massive sequential increase in pricing and continued revenue and EPS growth.
Data Center revenue showed significant growth and is expected to become the largest end-market for NAND, driven by AI workloads, with potential incremental demand not yet factored into forecasts.
The print reinforced the narrative of a structural evolution in the NAND market, with contract pricing changing rapidly and a shift towards multi-year agreements with firmer commitments and prepayments.
The massive revenue beat was driven by selling higher-value bits, and customers are requesting extraordinarily large supply allocations for future years, validating the shift to long-term agreements with prepayments.
Enterprise SSD demand is accelerating due to AI workloads, increasing NAND content per deployment.
NAND is now considered indispensable, leading to a fundamental shift in commercial relationships.
The company is moving towards multi-year agreements with firmer commitments on supply and pricing.
Supply certainty and longer planning horizons are essential to support structural demand beyond traditional cyclical models.
Bulls believe the company is entering a "super-cycle" where NAND becomes as critical as DRAM due to AI inference needs, pointing to a step function increase in earnings power.
Bulls emphasize that supply is structurally constrained, with growth limited by node transitions, far below explosive data center demand growth.
The shift to LTAs with prepayments validates that hyperscalers are securing supply, de-risking future cash flows, and suggesting a longer, higher cycle driven by secular demand.
Bears are concerned that the current situation is still a commodity cycle nearing "peak pricing," arguing that high prices could eventually destroy demand or lead to oversupply.
There is fear that consumer and edge markets could falter as higher NAND prices force OEMs to reduce storage content.
Bears fear that record margins could incentivize competitors to increase capacity, particularly from Chinese production, leading to market oversupply.
Bears question the sustainability of large sequential pricing jumps and anticipate a "hard landing" once hyperscaler inventory channels are refilled.
Bears view the situation as cyclical and suggest that the stock should not trade at more than 5x peak EPS.
The stock rose significantly as NAND prices jumped 9%, marking the biggest day-over-day increase since November.
The analyst believes there is still more upside for the stock, as the fundamental "rate of change" for memory/NAND in the first three weeks has been exceptionally strong, driven by advancements like Jensen's IMCS, Deepseek's Engram, and Claude Code's rapid adoption.
SNDK +11% (and up another 3% after close) as NAND prices jumped 9%, the biggest d/d increase since November. Given I posted the SMCI analog when stock broke out in early Jan, I’ll post what Bracco (who called out initial analog) said today, saying a parabol...
A chart analyst suggested that a parabolic top is near, noting that the stock is trading 330% above its 200-day moving average, an unprecedented extension for a large-cap name.
The stock has risen over 100% in 13 days and nearly 1,000% in 5 months, approaching the $500 century mark, and parabolic moves in super-liquid momentum stocks often peak at or overshoot such obvious round numbers.
The stock's base was one-third the length of SMCI's base before its breakout, suggesting that SNDK's move might fall short in duration and size compared to SMCI's, as a bigger base typically leads to a bigger move.
The analyst expressed concern about the sustainability of the current move, stating that history suggests it will likely end in a significant boom and bust.
Now, Bracco is purely charts (price and volume), but I like him because he has studied chart history better than almost anyone I’ve come across. I like talking to him for the same reason I like talking to super smart semi specialists —I want to get the expe...
The company struck the most constructive tone on NAND, with datacenter demand, including Vera Rubin–related storage, more than offsetting weaker PC and smartphone trends, and undersupply expected to persist as cleanroom capacity flows to DRAM.
Incremental NAND demand from NVIDIA’s KV cache context memory systems could absorb a significant portion of incremental NAND capacity, and pricing is expected to remain sequentially higher over the next 5–6 quarters.
The company's disciplined supply, hyperscaler alignment, and BiCS8 qualifications are expected to support margin expansion through CY27.
Citi raised its price target and FY26/FY27 EPS estimates due to eSSD upside and sustained NAND tightness.
The analyst lifts the stock to a $30+/share EPS trajectory.
Morgan Stanley states that the structural bull case strengthens as DeepSeek’s “Engram” architecture underscores the growing importance of offloading memory from GPU/HBM, similar to NVIDIA’s BlueField framework.
Engram enables large, static embedding tables to reside in host memory with minimal inference overhead, preserving scarce on-package HBM for compute, mirroring broader I/O and memory tiering trends.
As conditional memory architectures gain adoption, increasing value is expected to shift toward high-capacity host DRAM and low-latency SSD tiers where more effective model capacity resides off-package.
AMAT / LRCX / KLAC / ADI / MPWR / HDDs / MU / SNDK: Wells Fargo Raises Multiple Names to OW on WFE, Analog, and Memory Upside
Bernstein named SanDisk as a top 2026 IT hardware pick due to AI-driven data explosion, highlighting insatiable and relatively price-insensitive demand for NAND.
The firm reiterated SanDisk as a top 2026 pick, raising its price target to $580 due to severe NAND shortages and pricing upside.
The company is expected to benefit from a memory supercycle with strong pricing in 2026E.
The company is seeking long-term NAND flash supply contracts with 100% cash prepayment, which is an unprecedented demand given rapidly rising prices and supply constraints, raising questions about buyers' ability to allocate upfront cash.
AI strength is expected to persist across GPUs and ASICs (positive NVDA, DELL, AVGO), AI interconnect and optical with scale-up/out/across and 800G/1.6T (positive LITE, CRDO), and continued tailwinds for WFE (positive LRCX) alongside a memory supercycle wit...
The company is reducing or halting MLC NAND Flash output and redirecting capital and R&D investments toward advanced process technology, leading to a significant decline in worldwide MLC NAND Flash capacity.
The stock was negatively impacted as HDDs/memory experienced a hit.
QQQs -57bps today in a pretty fragmented factor day coupled with AI infra unwind / rotation: the worst pocket was Network Equip (-7.5%) and anything tied to optical + storage + DC plumbing, with CIEN (-13.1%) COHR (-9.6%) and LITE (-11%) dragging the optica...
BofA reiterated Buy on Sandisk and raised its price objective, as recent AI disclosures reinforce NAND’s rising role in AI inference, with larger context windows and dedicated storage tiers driving performance gains.
The analyst highlights very robust NAND pricing, with expectations for significant sequential upside in 4Q and 1Q, alongside disciplined capacity management and an improving mix toward higher-margin eSSDs.
BofA lifted F26E revenue/EPS estimates, valuing the stock at a higher P/B multiple.
Main read-throughs that should get a bid today are other names where tight supply/demand is causing pricing to be strong: HDDs (WDC/STX), NAND (SNDK), and Optical (LITE, COHR). Hearing some fears this morning around rising DRAM prices mean for Hardware (AAP...
STX + WDC + SNDK: Initiated Buy at China Renaissance
The NAND cycle is in its early stages, supported by tight supply and limited new capacity.
Near-term risk/reward is more balanced after a strong run, and earnings growth needs time to catch up with the stock's movement.
Near-term visibility remains mixed.
MU/SNDK: Hearing Clev positive on both saying Hyperscale demand driving upside to pricing through 2026
STX/WDC/SNDK: Citi Positive on Storage Fundamentals; Closes Near-Term Bullish View Post Rally
Citi remains constructive on HDD and NAND fundamentals across STX, WDC, and SNDK, citing stronger storage demand, supply tightness, and solid pricing momentum —but says it is closing short-term upside views following sharp stock gains into earnings. The fir...
Notably, the Economic _Daily_News reports that the rally has now spilled over to memory modules, with Taiwan's ADATA and Team Group both suspending the first such move since 2017, price quotes underscoring a severe supply-demand imbalance SNDK 59 JT NAND ab...
Research through 2026-10-29 · 2025-10-09 to 2026-10-29 · 109 source reports.
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Research through 2026-11-03. Artifact validity does not establish factual accuracy or research freshness.