SHOP

Despite a messy print, long-term investors remained positive about the company's future, focusing on better revenue numbers.

M-sci is reporting that Q4 GMV is tracking above Street expectations, despite October GMV moderating.

Mizuho is positive on SHOP into earnings, expecting low-to-mid-30s growth with agentic-commerce upside.

Software: Mizuho sees ORCL/CDNS/SNPS/TWLO as best opportunities after selloff; positive on SHOP/FIVN into prints

The company is favored due to its positioning in agentic-commerce and continued merchant additions.

Solid Q3 ecommerce results are expected due to positive traffic and app MAU trends, with AI agents/bots contributing to web traffic growth.

Ecommerce: Wedbush stays positive into 3Q; EBAY Top Pick, SHOP also favored

JPMorgan's Platinum Partner checks remain constructive, indicating that AI-driven traffic, currently at 2–3%, could reach over 10% in the next 1–2 years as LLM adoption, attribution, and agentic commerce improve.

Sidekick engagement is expanding beyond analytics into merchant operations, while Shop Pay, merchant ownership of customer relationships, and strong retention underpin the SMB moat.

Enterprise adoption remains healthy due to breadth, simplicity, and lower cost.

Demand trends remain solid despite macro uncertainty, supporting pricing power.

Shopify remains a JPMorgan Top Pick, with an Outperform rating and a price target of $200.

Jefferies’ 3Q alt-data is strongest for TOST, with ordering visits +21% y/y, logins +67% and Local downloads +130%, while SHOP app traffic held ~+99% despite tougher comps.

Yipit reported that Gross Merchandise Volume (GPV) grew in the high 30s, which is similar to Q2 despite facing tougher year-over-year comparisons.

UBS sees significant runway for Shopify Payments Gross Payment Volume (GPV) penetration, with a practical ceiling of 87–92% of GMV, indicating meaningful support for gross profit growth.

Baird raised estimates and price target due to higher Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR), healthy merchant adds, and enterprise momentum with significant wins.

Checks increasingly view the company's platform as the gold standard for agentic commerce, with incremental agent-driven volumes likely to accrue to the company.

The company is expected to see modest acceleration in GMV/revenue from Q2, with healthy trends in Europe and enterprise, and Operating Income (OI) ahead of Street estimates.

Partner and merchant checks, along with Muse/Shop Pay integration, reinforce the company's long-term advantage as agentic commerce scales.

Piper's expert call suggests agentic commerce is accelerating merchant migrations, with some planning to move in 1-3 years now seeking immediate migration, and LLMs + agents already driving 5-7% of GMV with higher average order values, potentially reaching 15% over time.

The company is viewed as 2-3 years ahead of competitors like Magento/Commerce Cloud in agent readiness, and Shop Pay provides a crucial trusted identity/checkout layer for agents, reinforcing the view that agentic commerce is a structural share-gain opportunity.

TikTok launched 'Direct Checkout' and an AI Shopping Assistant built with Shopify, and third-party data has shown accelerated performance since the Muse release.

The company is considered a clear internet winner in the agentic narrative, benefiting from rising frictionless GMV spend and increased pressure on brands to make their own checkout frictionless, making Shop Pay's conversion lift more valuable.

The stock's long-term chart shows a 'cup and handle' pattern, suggesting a potential breakout once it surpasses previous highs, as there is little overhead supply.

TikTok launched a “Direct Checkout” to buy from brands inside the app plus an AI Shopping Assistant, built with SHOP, CRM, Shoplazza and Stripe (per Adweek). Cleveland was out saying agentic transactions ran 2x YTD volumes in Sept. And Tobi was out tweeting...

The company continues to trade well on a bullish note regarding agentic commerce, with a bull case for significant growth and Shop Pay preserving payment economics as AI traffic improves conversion.

There is a growing sentiment among Canadian investors to overweight the company, as they become more aware of its branding as an AI winner.

Piper's expert call suggests that agentic commerce is accelerating merchant migrations, with some planning to move in 1-3 years now seeking immediate migration, driving a 'material uptick'.

LLMs and agents are already driving ~5-7% of GMV with higher Average Order Values (AOVs) and could reach ~15% over time, indicating a significant growth driver.

The company is viewed as ~2-3 years ahead of competitors like Magento/Commerce Cloud in agent readiness, giving it a competitive advantage.

Shop Pay provides a crucial trusted identity/checkout layer for agents, reinforcing the view that agentic commerce is a structural share-gain opportunity.

TikTok launched 'Direct Checkout' and an AI Shopping Assistant built with SHOP, indicating strong partnerships and new avenues for growth.

Agentic transactions ran 2x year-to-date volumes in September, showing rapid adoption and growth.

The CEO highlighted potential share gains from agentic commerce while Amazon is still figuring out its strategy, positioning the company favorably.

The company is considered 'by far the cleanest internet winner' in the agentic narrative, with multiple vectors of demand.

A scenario with a 30% agentic/70% non-agentic e-commerce split would benefit the company, as it gains from frictionless GMV and brands face pressure to make their own checkout frictionless, increasing the value of Shop Pay.

Third-party data has accelerated in recent weeks since the Muse release, suggesting positive momentum.

Numbers are set up decently, with buy-side expectations moving up recently despite the Street expecting a deceleration in GMV.

The long-term chart shows a 'cup and handle' pattern, where repeated failures at old highs build a larger base, suggesting significant upside once the ceiling breaks.

TikTok launched a “Direct Checkout” to buy from brands inside the app plus an AI Shopping Assistant, built with SHOP, CRM, Shoplazza and Stripe (per Adweek). Cleveland was out saying agentic transactions ran 2x YTD volumes in Sept. And Tobi was out tweeting...

The company wants its merchants to be available across every AI surface via Shop Pay, indicating a proactive approach to agentic commerce.

The company is expanding its monetization through new payment fees and potential money transmitter licenses, which could improve merchant relationships and internalize economics.

UBS sees modest but high-margin Payments upside, with Muse/Instinct preserving Shopify's economics.

Jefferies sees money transmitter licenses as the next unlock for Merchant Solutions, potentially adding approximately 5% to 2028 operating income.

Investors are increasingly viewing the company as a winner in the agentic commerce space.

Shopify monetizes the transaction rather than the impression, making it largely agnostic to whether demand originates in Muse, Copilot, Gemini, or the merchant storefront.

Even if Muse uses Link/PayPal/Meta Pay, a transaction at a Shopify Payments merchant can still earn SHOP its full take rate, and processor displacement risk is lower than recent stock moves imply.

Agentic fragmentation increases the value of Shopify’s catalog/inventory/order system as the common commerce layer.

The company's stock rose as new agentic plumbing allows agents to read, update, and complete checkout, including Shop Pay.

MS argued the company monetizes transactions rather than impressions, making it indifferent to where demand originates.

SHOP +3% as more agentic plumbing landed on the bulls side: WebMCP now covers checkout (agents can read, update and complete checkout, including Shop Pay, with buyer authorization), and MS argued SHOP monetizes the transaction rather than the impression, so...

The stock continues to perform well as investors increasingly view consumer agentic applications as a tailwind, with the company still powering checkout even when shopping originates elsewhere.

Citrini's framework, which favors infrastructure and transaction rails as agentic disintermediation becomes less theoretical, includes SHOP as a beneficiary.

DB believes the Muse partnership helps refute the AI-disintermediation bear case, reinforcing Shopify's position as a commerce infrastructure layer.

The integration of Shop Pay into Muse for product discovery and purchases demonstrates that leading AI platforms are integrating with Shopify rather than bypassing it.

Shopify's Catalog, merchant connectivity, trusted checkout, and payments infrastructure remain valuable even with a shift in the consumer interface to agents.

DB views agentic commerce as TAM-expansive and reiterated a Buy rating with a $185 price target.

The stock is outperforming as a perceived winner in the consumer agentic trade, showing high volatility as the narrative shifts.

The stock rallied mid-day due to an announcement of a deep partnership with Muse for agentic checkout with Shop Pay, which helped to counter the recent bearish sentiment that agents would be detrimental to the company.

The partnership with Muse directly refutes the bear claim that Shop Pay has no value to an agent and makes the scenario of Meta bypassing Shopify for payments less likely.

The company's catalog is a superior tool for Muse compared to web search, as it is exact and structured, leading Muse to prefer this path when available.

The company holds the keys to direct connections for agent shopping, requiring its approval along with the merchant's, making it difficult for others like Meta to bypass without resorting to blockable browser methods.

Shop Pay is planned to be a payment option within Muse, further integrating the company's payment system into the agentic commerce ecosystem.

The company provides a realistic route for small merchants to engage in agent shopping, as only a small fraction of sites have independently set up Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP).

The company is the only commerce platform with a dedicated checkout mode in Muse, indicating a unique and advantageous position.

The company's two-year investment in building its platform is being utilized, with the Shopify path likely running Shop Pay over UCP and product search pulling directly from the Shopify Catalog.

The rival browser mode for agent shopping is likely to be blocked by most merchants, pushing agent shopping towards direct connections, which is the company's strength.

The potential for agentic commerce to be a much larger tailwind than the market currently implies was discussed, suggesting a positive outlook.

Outside of META, SHOP +7% rallied mid-day on the Tobi/Alex tweet above, which helped dent the recent bear case on agents being bad for SHOP. We had some thoughts on debate early in the morning in Slack as it seems like agentic could be a much bigger ta...

Best article I could find was this PPC Land: Muse checkout teardown article, which implies that Muse prefers to use SHOP's catalog instead of web search as web searching more fragile and that as more merchants (like AMZN today) block agents, pushes shopping...

Net Adds through August improved sequentially.

Bernstein initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $160 price target, arguing that AI will expand the commerce market more than it disintermediates Shopify.

AI is expected to lower the barrier for new entrepreneurs, expanding Shopify's addressable market, while its unified commerce platform already spans international, physical, and B2B segments.

The company is expected to have continued pricing power, with revenue/GMV rising from ~2.5% to ~3% over the past decade.

JPM believes the approximately 13% pullback from early-September highs due to AI-agent fears is overdone, given Shopify's extensive commerce data, merchant AI tools, and strong payments/infrastructure moat.

JPM argues that Shopify should benefit as agentic channels drive higher-intent traffic, with new-buyer orders from AI sources running at approximately 2 times traditional channels in Q2.

JPM notes that Shopify retains the payment flow through Shop Pay within Muse Spark, limiting the economic disintermediation risk, and reiterated an Overweight rating with a $185 price target.

Software: DDOG 9:30am (CFO) · RBRK 9:30am (CEO) · U 9:30am (CFO) · INTU 10:10am (CFO) · MDB 10:10am (CEO/CFO/CPO) · Capgemini 10:10am (CEO) · SpaceXAI 12:25pm (CFO) · CRWD 1:45pm (CEO) · SHOP 2:25pm (CFO/VP Product & Growth) · AUR 2:25pm (CEO) · SAIL 3:05pm...

Piper Sandler says its cohort work supports ~32% 2027 revenue growth versus Street ~26%, with net-new growth reaccelerating to ~6% while the existing merchant base remains healthy.

Piper also sees meaningful FCF upside from gross-margin and operating leverage, raising 2027 FCF to ~$4.2B and arguing margins could expand ~177bps beyond Street through 2029.

Piper reiterated an Overweight rating and raised its price target to $180.

SHOP +2.7%: Some color on META/SHOP from Ummera in Slack

Sam Altman praised CEO Tobi for being a forward-leaning CEO in AI, actively experimenting with the technology, and providing detailed feedback.

Tobi was ahead of others in adopting agents, stating the company is not an NPC company and would build agents themselves.

Tobi is consistently six to eight months ahead of other CEOs in his understanding and implementation of AI.

The company continues to post robust growth and is well positioned to capitalize on the rise of agentic commerce.

Piper noted that 2Q margin upside appeared to stem more from lower employee costs than lower token expense, which is viewed as constructive because labor savings are more structural.

Piper highlighted strong capital-products momentum, with loans/merchant cash advances up significantly year-over-year.

Piper reiterated an Overweight rating.

SHOP/APP: Piper Says Shopify’s Margin Beat Was Employee-Cost Driven, While AppLovin Publisher Payments Remain a Watch Item

Investors are becoming more comfortable with mid-30s growth and AI tailwinds, leading to positive follow-through.

The company appears to have a relatively clean narrative, likely sustaining mid-30s growth, and effectively communicated how AI is driving top-line growth while refuting severe bear cases about AI immediately cratering GP growth and FCF margins.

Sidekick usage exploded, with daily active merchants and sessions significantly increasing, yet Subscription Solutions GM only compressed marginally, and FCF margins exceeded expectations.

Management argued that the gap between revenue and GP growth is primarily driven by a mix shift towards lower-margin Merchant Solutions and Payments, rather than solely AI costs.

The company is demonstrating strong growth across all merchant sizes and channels, while maintaining significant operating leverage and FCF margins.

Clev was positive, stating that Q2 GMV/Payments finished well ahead of expectations.

RBC identified SHOP as a defensible name, arguing that fully burdened DIY AI software costs preserve vendor defensibility, making internal builds more expensive, less secure, and lower quality.

Cleveland was positive on the stock, noting that Q2 finished well ahead due to GMV/payments upside and market share gains.

SHOP +12% as Cleveland was out positive saying Q2 finished well ahead on GMV/payments upside and share gains. Sentiment here still remains mixed - buyside wants to get more positive on some sort of price increase in 1H’27 and likely upside to top line while...

The company is emerging as the infrastructure layer for agentic commerce, which positions it for future growth.

Near-term fundamentals are stronger than Street expectations, with third-party data indicating higher GMV growth.

A potential non-Plus price increase could significantly boost 2027 revenue and provide meaningful profit upside.

The new partner-incentive model is a long-term positive, expected to improve merchant acquisition and lower lifetime sales costs despite higher near-term payouts.

Agentic commerce is projected to shift a substantial amount of GMV towards independent merchants by 2028, with the company well-positioned to capture incremental GMV, merchant additions, retention, and take-rate expansion.

Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy, arguing the company is becoming the infrastructure layer for agentic commerce. Third-party data suggests 2Q GMV growth of approximately 32% year-over-year, exceeding the Street's estimate of 27%. Additionally, a potential non-Plus price increase could boost 2027 revenue by 3-4% and significantly increase profit.

The company was upgraded to Buy with a raised price target, as survey work and industry conversations suggest a realistic path to over 30% revenue growth in 2026 and sustained mid-20s beyond, driven by its share-gaining playbook and leadership in agentic commerce.

Wells Fargo expects a 2Q beat on GMV and non-GAAP operating income, driven by merchant adoption strength.

The company is a primary beneficiary—not a casualty—of the shift toward AI-powered agentic commerce, leading to a Buy reinstatement and a price target of $150.

Shopify’s payments, checkout, and merchant infrastructure become increasingly valuable as AI agents drive transactions, while international expansion and enterprise adoption provide additional durable growth drivers.

The stock is valued at 22x CY27 EV/Gross Profit, citing best-in-class growth, expanding margins, and an attractive entry point following concerns that AI could bypass the platform.

Oppenheimer is constructive on Shopify, arguing that its early AI investments have positioned it ahead of peers and created a product innovation flywheel supporting sustained 20-30%+ growth.

Key initiatives like Sidekick, Catalog, Agentic Plan, and UCP/MCP are building blocks for Shopify’s agentic commerce strategy, and management has addressed concerns around AI costs through internal usage controls and model optimization.

Resilient GMV trends despite macro concerns, continued marketing discipline, expanding Managed Markets adoption, and ongoing share repurchases are supporting the company's story.

Piper remains constructive on the company, noting that UCP adoption has risen to approximately 13.5% of the top 2,500 e-commerce sites from about 12.3% in March, with recent adopters including Zara, Academy Sports, and Ace Hardware.

The firm views UCP as a key enabler of agentic commerce, helping merchants remain discoverable and transact directly within AI-driven shopping experiences.

Combined with continued growth in Shopify’s partner ecosystem, Piper believes UCP strengthens the company’s enterprise positioning and creates a longer-term merchant acquisition opportunity.

The company increased its buyback program to $3 billion.

Third-party reports indicate that merchant net adds slowed in April, but monthly recurring revenue (MRR) accelerated.

The company announced a $3 billion boost to its repurchase program, which can be a positive signal to investors.

The stock showed strength as an internet laggard, indicating a broader positive trend.

Morgan Stanley's latest SMB survey was incrementally positive, with the company seeing POS hardware adoption nearly double year-over-year and increasing attachment of payments and AI services.

Morgan Stanley’s latest SMB survey came in incrementally positive for XYZ, SHOP, and TOST, with the firm raising already-above-Street XYZ estimates and now

The company's stock increased by 8% and is up 15% since Thrive announced its acquisition below $100, indicating strong investor confidence.

RDDT +9% following through on yesterday’s strength — Jefferies had a positive not here around integration with SHOP +8%, which now up 15% since Thrive announced they bought under $100.

JPM highlighted three key opportunity layers — traffic/discovery channels, on-platform AI enhancements, and infrastructure APIs — arguing the company is increasingly becoming the backbone for AI-native commerce workflows.

JPM pointed to growing traction around Sidekick, AI-powered search, Agentic Storefront/Catalog tools, and partnerships, while noting AI-referred shoppers are converting significantly higher and carrying higher Average Order Values (AOVs).

JPM believes the company can offset much of the near-term margin pressure from AI token/cloud costs through higher GMV growth, pricing leverage, operating efficiency, and expanding AI-driven merchant monetization over time.

The stock experienced a bounce back, as lower interest rates and oil prices alleviated concerns about consumer spending.

DASH +2%/SHOP +2% a couple other internet quality laggards getting a bit of a bid today

The stock saw a positive movement after Thrive Capital took a $100M stake, and GPV is tracking in the mid-30s, exceeding street expectations in the low-30s.

Cleveland is reportedly positive on the stock, stating that Q1 finished ahead and accelerated.

Third-party reports indicate better than expected March data in EMEA and the US, leading to raised fair market value numbers.

Citi continues to prefer the company within applications due to stronger organic growth, AI cycles, and SMB/eCommerce exposure.

JPM reiterated an Overweight rating and price target, citing the company's broad merchant solutions, especially for SMBs, which create structural defensibility against agentic disruption and support a durable growth outlook.

The firm highlighted accelerating AI integration (OpenAI, Gemini, Copilot, Perplexity) and early traction in AI-driven commerce, alongside reduced bear risk as OpenAI pivots away from Instant Checkout.

Citi continues to prefer data/infra and hyperscalers (MDB, SNOW, PLTR, MSFT) and within apps still likes SHOP, NOW, HUBS, BRZE, KVYO for stronger organic growth, AI cycles, and SMB/eCommerce exposure.

SHOP: JPM Reiterates Overweight, $150 PT; Merchant Stack + AI Integrations Limit Disruption Risk

Oppenheimer's cohort analysis projects 27%/23% revenue growth in FY26/27, with an upside scenario reaching over $21 billion if upmarket momentum, AI-driven merchant success, and international expansion accelerate.

FY24/25 cohorts have established a "New Normal" with larger upfront cohorts demonstrating nearly double the four-year cumulative value of previous vintages.

Benchmark views Shopify as well-positioned as the "default rail for native commerce at scale across all major AI channels," especially as non-Shopify brands can now access AI shopping surfaces.

Piper Sandler reiterated Overweight, stating that Shopify's cohort analysis supports approximately 29% revenue growth in FY26/27, exceeding Street expectations, driven by strong contributions from newer cohorts and resilient growth in older cohorts.

Year-2 cohorts are sustaining over 100% year-over-year growth, and Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) is driven by both new and existing customers.

Pricing and cohort durability could push growth above 30% longer term, with additional upside from enterprise expansion and new product total addressable market (TAM).

The firm views the recent acceleration as sustainable.

The launch of Agentic Storefronts in ChatGPT expands product discovery and enables in-app purchases across AI channels, reinforcing its position as a leading platform for agentic commerce.

Merchants retain customer relationships/data and avoid incremental fees, while the company gains attribution and broader distribution via its catalog across multiple AI platforms.

OpenAI's pullback from native checkout underscores execution complexity, positioning the company to benefit as transactions route through merchant storefronts.

Agentic commerce is viewed as a meaningful penetration driver, with the company positioned as a key enabler.

The stock held up relatively well compared to other large-cap names.

M-sci raised numbers for the company.

UBS suggested that changes in payments pricing could lift margins.

Piper initiated coverage with a positive rating after the close.

The stock followed through on positive news regarding OpenAI's decision to roll back checkout plans, reinforcing Shopify's competitive position in agentic commerce.

The CFO highlighted Shopify's strong competitive advantages in the agentic commerce era, specifically in transaction, data, and network effect layers.

The CFO argued that enterprises prefer Shopify's comprehensive solution over cobbling together single-point tools, indicating a strong value proposition.

The recent software selloff due to AI concerns has created a compelling entry point for the stock.

Shopify is one of the few software companies demonstrating re-accelerating growth.

The current valuation reset does not accurately reflect the company's long-term growth opportunity.

The company is well-positioned to benefit from agentic commerce trends and expand its market share in U.S. e-commerce.

The recent market dislocation presents an attractive opportunity for patient investors.

The stock gained following upgrades from Moffet Nathanson and Canadian Bank ATB, both of whom view agentic commerce as a tailwind.

BKNG +1% on GH upgrade saying AI fears are overdone. Telling price action here — names like SHOP U and TTWO rallying back after sell-off last week, but a name like BKNG struggling to gain traction.

A third-party firm's initial GMV estimate for Q1 was in the mid-single digits above street expectations, implying low 30s year-over-year growth in Q2.

The stock received an upgrade from Michael Morton, who highlighted the long-term opportunity presented by growing consumer adoption of conversational commerce and the expectation that Shopify will benefit from AI rather than be threatened by it.

The stock is recovering after a 40% drawdown due to misplaced AI fears.

Also saw some buying in names outside of sw that had been beaten down over the last 1.5 weeks on AI fears, where they were likely misplaced: SHOP +6%; TTWO +5%; U +10% for example.

Third-party reports indicate Q4 GMV finished ahead of street expectations due to international strength.

WIX/GDDY/SHOP: Barclays Flags Extreme AI Pessimism; Sees Setup for Growth Reset

Third-party data indicates that the company's performance has held up well, tracking to 40% growth compared to street expectations in the low 30s.

Shopify's UCP announcements significantly expand its agentic commerce footprint through deep integrations with Google Search/Gemini, OpenAI, and ChatGPT, all managed via Shopify Admin and Agentic Storefronts.

The new Agentic Plan opens Shopify Catalog to non-Shopify merchants, expanding the funnel and reinforcing Shopify's role as a core enabler for merchants navigating agentic workflows.

The updates support Shopify's role as the checkout layer and help protect market share as merchant inventory increasingly surfaces across multiple AI agents.

Shopify remains a high-quality business with continued market share gains and a deepening competitive moat.

Holiday demand is evenly distributed, and free cash flow margins remain steady despite transitioning to a cash tax payer.

Initial data points show a massive growth acceleration following its ChatGPT integration.

Early October data showed a strong acceleration in growth metrics.

SHOP +2.5% more new highs as main beneficiary from ChatGPT growth in Internet space DUOL +5% didn't hear anything here just same stuff we flagged last week: very recent userltop of funnel data seems to be stabilizing #YEtetiaz RBLX +6Obps as Citi opened 30...