HUBS can convert a temporary demand reset into durable earnings growth if AI adoption and delayed deals translate into paid usage.
HUBS risks settling into low-to-mid-teens growth as cautious buyers, weak customer expansion, and delayed AI monetization undermine the reacceleration case.
The stock declined in sympathy with MNDY, which was downgraded due to worsening paid search/SEO and SMBs experimenting with LLM/vibe-coding alternatives.
The company faces a higher bar for its upcoming earnings.
The company faces headwinds from a pricing transition and softer demand in the SMB segment, leading to a downgrade.
AVGO +2.6% on a DA Davidson Upgrade and $63B in funding. Software -0.4% led lower by HUBS -2.5% after a UBS downgrade.
The company's stock declined following a downgrade, contributing to a broader trend of app software companies losing value.
The company's stock led app software lower after a UBS downgrade to Neutral, citing weaker SMB and new-logo demand, as well as friction in consumption-based pricing, leading to a trimmed FY27 growth forecast.
Recent workforce reductions are expected to significantly support future operating margins, providing an earnings backstop if topline growth remains durable.
Feedback on the Agent Builder product remains constructive, indicating positive reception for new offerings.
The price target was raised, indicating increased confidence in the stock's future performance.
Partner checks deteriorated quarter-over-quarter, indicating softening conditions with longer sales cycles, increased pricing scrutiny, and new competitors.
Limited upside is expected for Q3 revenue growth, roughly consistent with the previous quarter's modest beat.
The stock ripped higher as app software names saw strong performance.
The stock was squeezed higher as AI losers saw a rebound.
The company's stock ripped, likely helped by CRM's 58% premium for BRZE, indicating positive sentiment for app software companies.
The market turned on reports around 9:15am ET that the US and Iran had backed a Qatar/Pakistan compromise proposal, plus a weak pending home sales print that pulled yields lower, with small caps leading (IWM +1.7%). Breadth flipped from yesterday’s narrow b...
In Tech, Semis -2% following the weakness in Korea (-4%) overnight as DC IPO Elice fell 30% on its first trading day in Korea, which isn’t helping things. Neoclouds (NBIS -5%; CRWV -4%; Miners -4%) leading the way lower with memory -3-4% right behind. Softw...
TWLO is the main caution as web traffic slowed sharply to +21% from +49% in 2Q; HUBS traffic remains strong at +26% but needs to convert into better net adds.
Oppenheimer says the new EMEA pricing model simplifies packaging and should reduce friction and improve cross-selling.
Partner checks are generally positive, and the FY26 impact should be limited.
The RIF supports margin goals, and the company reaffirmed Q3/FY26 guidance.
MSFT remains the clear leader at +77% net performance and 82% prepackaged-AI adoption, followed by NOW +55%; HUBS improved to +36%, while FIG showed more bifurcation/AI displacement risk. Anthropic remains the most strategic AI vendor ahead of MSFT/OpenAI,...
The stock benefited from a rotation into app software, which is perceived as an 'AI-loser bounce'.
The new EMEA pricing model will likely pressure Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), and heavier users could face higher costs, creating near-term uncertainty.
Customers remain cautious through the AI transition, delaying the growth reacceleration that was central to the prior bull case.
MNDY -4.7%; HUBS -2.2% as Barclays downgraded both: MNDY’s AI ARR is only ~1% of total as growth slows to a 16-17% Q3 guide; at HUBS, customers are cautious and April’s GTM disruption weighs on pipeline through 2H26.
JPM cuts HUBS to Neutral from OW and PT to $240 from $268, citing an uncertain timeline for revenue growth to recover.
HUBS +5.3%; MNDY +6.5%; FIG +4.7%; TEAM +4%; ADBE +3.6%: seat-based software also squeezed higher helped by the semis drawdown and short-covering, HUBS even after JPM downgraded it this morning (AI monetization taking longer, a medium-term growth headwind r...
The timeline for revenue growth recovery is uncertain, and AI monetization is taking longer than expected, posing a medium-term growth headwind.
HUBS: JPM downgrades to Neutral/$240 on delayed AI monetization and uncertain growth recovery
The company announced staff reductions and a new non-GAAP operating margin target for 2030, which could lead to significant annualized savings and a flatter organizational structure.
Bears view the staff cuts and margin targets as a reflection of the company's long-term case playing out, indicating a structurally slower and secularly challenged business relying on margins and buybacks for downside protection.
The stock saw increased interest, likely due to its exposure to agent-based applications.
M-sci reports better registrations and healthy SMB demand.
Enterprise CMS is negative, and Marketing net adds are muted.
The company's stock did not benefit from being named an OpenAI Marketplace partner, and M-sci data showed mixed results with negative enterprise CMS and muted Marketing net adds.
JPM's HubSpot partner checks showed generally solid pipelines.
Ease of use remains a key competitive advantage for HubSpot.
EMEA partners cited macro uncertainty, AI confusion, and GDPR/data-sovereignty concerns as reasons for lengthening sales cycles.
AI credit usage is highly bifurcated, concentrated among power users/enterprise customers, with one partner estimating only approximately 10% materially exceed initial capacity while most use less than 5%.
Product depth versus Salesforce remains a constraint upmarket.
There was not much incremental news from the analyst day, potentially leading to pressure due to the lack of revenue guidance.
The company reaffirmed that COGS growth would exceed revenue growth in 2027 as they encourage customers to use their AI tools.
The stock underperformed, categorized as an 'AI loser'.
The company is expected to reinforce a path to ~25% PF operating margins by 2028, with FY27 already tracking ~22.75–23.75% versus the prior 20–22% target despite softer revenue growth.
HUBS: JPM sees Analyst Day leaning into margin upside, but says growth recovery remains the real debate
The stock saw a significant increase, as investors perceived it as a beneficiary from the slowdown in AI frontier development and increased focus on safety.
Revenue is decelerating from ~20% in 1H26 to low/mid-teens in 2H26 as new-customer adds weaken and AI monetization ramps more slowly following lower pricing and extended trials.
Any multiple rerating from sub-10x EV/FCF likely requires clearer evidence that net-new ARR and customer additions are stabilizing.
The company is seeing high engagement with its AI connectors, which are helping to improve customer retention and gross margins.
The stock experienced weakness across the board, indicating a broad-based decline in the software sector.
The stock, categorized as an AI "loser" in application software, outperformed.
The FQ2 results reflect a temporary transition in how SMB and mid-market customers evaluate and fund AI, not a deterioration in competitive position.
Gross retention remains strong in the high 80s, upmarket win rates are stable, and large opportunities are closing.
The company has a differentiated platform argument because its agents are grounded in CRM data, context, permissions, and workflows, allowing customers to consolidate point tools.
AI adoption metrics are moving quickly, with over 55% Pro+ penetration and more than 3x growth in agentic actions, suggesting real product-market fit.
The reset may have lowered the bar enough for improving execution to matter, with the outlook assuming Q2 and July softness persists but preserving operating income and FCF forecasts.
If trials convert, paid credit usage broadens, and delayed upmarket deals close, revenue could stabilize while EPS and FCF compound faster.
The additional $1B repurchase program limits dilution and signals confidence in intrinsic value.
A modest FQ2 revenue/EPS beat was overwhelmed by weaker customer acquisition, NRR, and NNARR, along with a sharply below-Street FQ3 guide and a FY26 growth reset.
Investor feedback indicated genuine deterioration in the buying environment, with increased budget sensitivity, longer approval cycles, and deals slipping.
Customers are trying to fund AI adoption within finite budgets, demanding proof of value, predictable economics, and clear ROI, leading to more scrutiny on purchases and renewals.
GTM changes, while long-term choices, extended evaluation cycles and reduced near-term monetization, creating a period where adoption can rise faster than revenue.
NRR fell to 102%, and customers offset expansion tailwinds by rationalizing unused seats, reducing databases, consolidating portals, and scrutinizing renewal spend.
The quarter invalidated the core acceleration thesis, with net adds dropping, NRR falling, and NNARR expected to trail CC revenue growth.
Both components of the growth algorithm are weakening simultaneously: fewer new logos and existing customers cutting spending.
FQ3 CC growth of 15% and revised FY27 estimates near 13-14% suggest the company may be settling into a low-to-mid-teens growth profile.
AI may be contributing to the problem, with customers diverting budgets, demanding lower prices, and questioning ROI, while trials and bundled credits may not produce material paid revenue.
AI-native vendors broaden the competitive set and could weaken the value of traditional front-office software.
Aggressive cost leverage and repurchases may be seen as downside protection for a structurally slower growth business, not evidence of reacceleration.
In early action, software -3% leading the way lower while Semis 0.5% as NVDA +1% helping prop up the space. App sw names down 4-5% on the back of HUBS and FIG disappointing prints. Some hyperscalers like AMZN/META helping prop up the QQQs as well as AAPL +1%
The company's earnings report was disappointing against high buy-side expectations.
While revenue technically beat Street estimates, growth was slightly below whisper expectations, billings missed, third-quarter guidance was cut below expectations, and the full-year constant-currency outlook was reduced.
The combination of weaker demand signals and lower estimates is likely to deter investors and negatively impact the stock.
Recent channel checks show no clear inflection in demand or AI-agent monetization, making a beat-and-raise outcome necessary to support the stock's valuation.
RBC identified HUBS as a defensible name, arguing that fully burdened DIY AI software costs preserve vendor defensibility, making internal builds more expensive, less secure, and lower quality.
The stock showed significant strength, categorized as an 'AI Loser' in the application software sector.
The stock experienced a significant decline, categorized as an "AI loser" due to broader software sector weakness.
The stock showed nice outperformance, categorized among the usual 'AI losers' bucket.
The stock showed nice outperformance.
The company's July 5 reversal of terms-of-service changes that auto-opted customers into sharing CRM enrichment data is a near-term distraction with tail risk to Net Revenue Retention (NRR) and trust.
Backlash centered on the company treating proprietary CRM data as its own, potential competitive misuse, and GDPR/CCPA conflicts, with some customers already shopping for alternatives.
While the base case is a short-lived distraction, the acute scenario carries lasting trust damage to renewals, expansions, and competitive positioning, especially amid heightened enterprise anxiety over AI accessing proprietary customer data.
The stock underperformed, indicating that AI disruptors are struggling.
AI disruptors back to underperforming: WDAY/HUBS/MNDY/ACN/CTSH/TEAM all down 3-4%
BTIG remains constructive on HubSpot ahead of Q2, expecting a solid but unspectacular quarter with sales cycle elongation and a slower start to the quarter already reflected in guidance.
The firm believes investor focus will shift toward improving H2 NNARR as AI-driven product enhancements, larger deal sizes, and agentic features support stronger customer adoption.
Partner checks remain positive on pricing and product momentum.
BTIG continues to rate the shares Buy with a $300 price target, viewing the current valuation as attractive despite near-term growth moderation.
The stock continues to hit new lows.
The stock was part of a broad decline across application software.
The stock struggled to attract buyers, consistent with the broader application software sector.
The company's stock declined as app software continues to receive little attention, and Mythos/Fable coding capabilities show ongoing improvements.
The stock was weaker, possibly on the back of the Fable release and Whalerock's comments on ILTB.
The stock was an underperformer, categorized as part of the usual AI disruption crew.
The stock showed strength as a laggard, indicating a broad-based rally in software.
The company is struggling to attract bids due to persistent AI concerns.
Charts looking better here for some stocks that have lagged: GTLB +%; ZS +6% but others like CRM +2%, ADBE+25bps or HUBS continue to look worse, which points to the increasing bifurcation in software stocks theme we have been writing about (cyber, DDOG hitt...
Charts looking better here for some stocks that have lagged: GTLB +%; ZS +6% but others like CRM +2%, ADBE+25bps or HUBS continue to look worse, which points to the increasing bifurcation in software stocks theme we have been writing about (cyber, DDOG hitt...
The company's charts continue to look worse, indicating underperformance and contributing to the increasing bifurcation in software stocks.
The stock experienced follow-through to the downside, confirming that misses in the internet and software sectors are seeing continued negative follow-through.
HUBS -6%/MNDY -6% with follow through to the downside, confirming misses are seeing continued neg follow through in internet and sw
The company was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform with a $210 price target.
Q1 results have cast uncertainty on market expectations for faster top-line growth this year.
The company remains a high-quality SMB and mid-market CRM platform capable of compounding at a high-teens growth rate with improving margins, as its core platform story is intact with strong upmarket momentum, multi-hub adoption, and pricing tailwinds.
The issues in the quarter are considered self-inflicted and transitional, not structural, with outcome-based pricing and 28-day trials viewed as beneficial long-term moves for AI agent adoption.
Strong credit consumption growth, Core Seat adoption, and early agent usage indicate that AI can expand the total addressable market rather than disrupt the business model.
The company's guidance for approximately 21% non-GAAP operating margin in FY26, ahead of its prior FY27 target, and approximately $750 million in free cash flow, provides a strong argument for its valuation through execution and meaningful cash flow generation.
The stock's valuation, at roughly low-teens EV/FCF and low-single-digit EV/revenue after the selloff, suggests the market is overpricing AI disruption risk despite the business growing at a high-teens rate with expanding profitability.
Bulls still see HUBS as a high-quality SMB and mid-market CRM platform that can compound at a high-teens growth rate with improving margins.
The stock declined due to billings deceleration, softness in the Q2 guide, NNARR slipping below constant currency revenue growth, and execution risk associated with AI packaging and pricing changes.
The quarter introduced too many simultaneous changes, including AI pricing adjustments, free trials, sales force training, and a shift to an agent-first sales motion, creating execution risk and making a 2H reacceleration difficult to underwrite.
NNARR dipping below constant currency revenue growth for the first time in several quarters is particularly problematic, as NNARR had been a key support for the bull case.
Calculated billings growth decelerated to +17% constant currency from +20% constant currency, and the Q2 guide implies revenue growth slowing to +16% constant currency.
There is a structural debate about whether AI is a monetization tailwind or a disruption risk, with concerns that AI-native workflows, frontier model providers, and changing search behavior could pressure marketing demand, seat-based expansion, and traditional CRM UI.
Management's commentary about organic traffic for customers being down 27% this year reinforces the idea of a rapidly shifting marketing landscape.
Outcome-based pricing could result in lower average revenue per user or be more complex to sell than anticipated, and customers requiring proof-of-value suggest that broader agent adoption is still early and inconsistent.
In tech land, HUBS -22% blow up showing app sw not in same league as consumption sw after DDOG’s beat yesterday, AKAM rallying on a big deal, NET down on an expects miss, MCHP the latest analog to beat, CRWV down on a weaker guide, ABNB looks solid, QCOM co...
The stock declined due to a billings miss and management discussing sales elongation after a Q1 pricing change and a slow start to Q2.
Changes to outcome-based pricing, free trials, and sales rep training on new innovations are expected to extend sales cycles and reduced sales capacity in April, contributing to a slow Q2 start and impacting guidance.
Wells Fargo sees strong upmarket momentum, with larger deal sizes (over $350K), strong Q1 outperformance (approximately 13% year-over-year versus an 8% target), and a solid pipeline building into Q2 following a record 4Q.
The firm highlights continued displacement of legacy vendors (Marketo, Pardot), increasing multi-product adoption, and growing interest in a unified platform.
Wells Fargo sees improving enterprise motion and durable growth drivers, with pipeline strength supporting near-term visibility despite mixed lower-end demand.
SMB sentiment remains softer, and close rates have declined to approximately 35-40% as deal sizes increase.
Partner checks point to a constructive demand backdrop into 1Q, with stabilization in CC growth and improving partner pipelines.
Agentic AI adoption is accelerating, and outcome-based pricing is a longer-term upside lever with clear ROI and early success cases.
Improving partner sentiment vs 4Q and stronger lead flow are noted, along with modest growth acceleration potential into FY26 (~16% CC guide) with pricing tailwinds and low churn.
Agentic AI adoption is still early and not yet driving meaningful monetization.
Inbound demand has not yet materially inflected.
The stock remains in a “show-me” phase as investors look for clearer AI-driven revenue contribution.
Third-party reports suggest strong SMB seat growth.
Third-party reports indicate weaker enterprise performance.
Citi continues to prefer the company within applications due to stronger organic growth, AI cycles, and SMB/eCommerce exposure.
Citi continues to prefer data/infra and hyperscalers (MDB, SNOW, PLTR, MSFT) and within apps still likes SHOP, NOW, HUBS, BRZE, KVYO for stronger organic growth, AI cycles, and SMB/eCommerce exposure.
Stifel's partner checks indicated a solid 1Q, with partners meeting targets and dismissing the threat of LLM/vibe-coding tools to the company's CRM business.
Credit consumption is ramping, with consensus pointing to a more material inflection in the second half of the year.
The stock was reinstated at Buy with a $300 PT, citing a compelling entry point after a significant decline, with AI-related bear cases considered overly discounted.
Growth is expected to reaccelerate to approximately 20% this year, supporting upside from current levels.
The stock was weaker, categorized among companies experiencing disruption from AI.
The company's positive performance indicated that software stocks with digestible valuations are being rewarded for strong prints.
The stock declined in sympathy with MNDY's weak guidance and AI obsolescence fears.
Citi initiated a positive 30-day catalyst watch on HubSpot, expecting a strong 4Q driven by favorable year-end budget flush dynamics.
The stock trades at trough valuations (approximately 34x EV/NTM earnings, approximately 28x EV/NTM FCF) despite consistent approximately 20% growth, a new AI product cycle, and improving go-to-market execution.
Positive management commentary around AI consumption is viewed as evidence of tangible, largely organic AI-driven revenue traction across the SMB base.
Upcoming guidance is expected to validate these trends, serving as a near-term upside catalyst.
Oppenheimer reiterated Outperform on HubSpot, noting no churn or downgrades at the partner level, which supports management’s improving NRR outlook.
Early 1Q26 pipeline is reportedly above plan as stalled 4Q deals re-enter, indicating a rebound in sales activity.
HubSpot’s strong gross margins and balance sheet provide downside support, despite cautious investor sentiment.
Partner checks flagged softer-than-expected 4Q new MRR due to lighter post-Inbound activity, weaker upmarket deal flow, fewer multi-hub deals, and limited budget flush.
Large deals remain scarce, implying FY26 growth likely decelerates versus FY25, with additional agency checks mixed.
Cautious investor sentiment is expected to persist.
Research through 2026-11-03 · 2026-01-07 to 2026-11-03 · 56 source reports.
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Research through 2026-11-03. Artifact validity does not establish factual accuracy or research freshness.