eBay’s growth mix is shifting toward live commerce, recommerce and higher-value services, creating upside to GMV and earnings expectations.
The investment case depends on growth initiatives converting into profitable GMV; acquisition spending, competition and valuation leave meaningful downside if execution slips.
Management remains confident in healthy 2027 growth, with significant upside potential from Live and Depop verticals.
Advertising growth is decelerating, increasing reliance on GMV strength, while international revenue remains a laggard.
The company is a top pick, with GMV expected to exceed guidance and strength in key categories supporting durable growth.
Solid Q3 ecommerce results are expected due to positive traffic and app MAU trends, with AI agents/bots contributing to web traffic growth.
Ecommerce: Wedbush stays positive into 3Q; EBAY Top Pick, SHOP also favored
Morgan Stanley made eBay a Top Pick, arguing that Live Commerce is creating incremental GMV through reseller circularity and halo spend, rather than just being a trading-card fad.
Approximately 25% of Live buyers are primarily resellers, and Whatnot engagement shows high daily usage, significant monthly spend, numerous transactions, and strong 3-month retention.
The card cycle is healthier than prior booms, with approximately two-thirds of recent secondary-market growth driven by volume rather than price.
Margin fears appear overdone, as Live investment is largely in the P&L and should gain fixed-cost leverage as GMV scales, while Depop marketing has moderated.
Morgan Stanley reiterates an Overweight rating and a price target of $132.
Live commerce is expected to drive approximately 40% of FY26 Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth, with live-influenced GMV projected to grow significantly by 2030.
The analyst's FY28 GMV/EBIT estimates are 5%/7% above the Street, with Payments & Advertising (P&A) adding further growth and Depop/agentic/C2C offering upside.
The company is among those that could see a rerating in 2027 as AI fears prove overdone and margins improve.
EBAY: MS adds as Top Pick, raises PT to $132 as live commerce makes GMV growth more durable
Live commerce and C2C initiatives are driving durable GMV growth, supporting a positive long-term outlook.
EBAY +2.2% as MS made it a Top Pick on live commerce: Western live commerce has grown 5x to $27B and drives ~40% of eBay’s FY26 GMV growth, with MS at ~6.5% GMV CAGR for ‘26-30 vs the Street’s ~4.9%. That helps bulls who argue Live and C2C make GMV growth d...
Heavy investment in live commerce and C2C, combined with increased competition from Vinted, is expected to compress margins in 2027.
The analyst is positive on eBay based on survey results indicating resilient consumer spending, especially among higher-income households.
ETSY led spend-more intent at 53%, while AMZN was lowest at 38% and highest for spend-less at 20%; Wolfe is positive on ETSY/EBAY and neutral-to-positive on AMZN. ~50% already use AI in shopping, with ChatGPT the preferred tool for 40%.
AMZN/EBAY/ETSY: Wolfe survey shows resilient spend despite weak sentiment; ETSY/EBAY screen best
M-sci reported that growth further accelerated from Q2 to Q3 in both the U.S. and internationally.
M-sci believes the company will significantly outperform its Q3 guidance.
Depop is widening its user lead over Vinted despite sharply reducing paid acquisition, with organic downloads growing and significantly higher user additions, indicating stronger network effects.
The gap in user acquisition is attributed to much stronger network effects for Depop, with a significantly higher download-to-WAU conversion rate compared to Vinted.
The analyst is more tactically bullish as eBay appears able to defend market share without matching competitor spending, which reduces the risk of a weak initial FY27 EBIT guide.
EBAY: MS says Depop is widening its user lead over Vinted despite cutting marketing, lowering FY27 EBIT risk
MS turns more tactically bullish as EBAY appears able to defend share without matching competitor spend, reducing risk of a weak initial FY27 EBIT guide; reiterates OW/$127.
Losers AMZN -1.3% UPWK -0.2% MELI 0.2% ABNB 0.3% DASH 0.8% BKNG 0.8% EBAY 1.2% UBER 1.3% CART 1.5% ROKU 1.6%
CEO Jamie Iannone and CFO Peggy Alford stated that 70% of GMV is now in focus categories, C2C and recommerce, each growing over 20%, indicating successful strategic shifts.
Vehicles are at hundreds of millions of run rate a year after launch, and eBay Live is up 8x, demonstrating strong growth in new and existing initiatives.
In agentic commerce, unique inventory surfaced through agents is small, but about half of those buyers return directly to eBay for their next purchase, suggesting agents can drive incremental traffic and the trust layer is crucial.
Ads are at 2.8% penetration against a 3% goal, which is not considered a ceiling, indicating further growth potential.
Depop has grown faster since its acquisition than before, highlighting a successful integration and growth strategy.
Traffic improved modestly.
Jefferies believes the company needs GMV growth approximately 2 points above guidance to justify its current multiple.
The market is over-penalizing Depop's elevated spending, as aggressive upfront investment is often necessary to build network effects in the resale market.
Depop already has approximately 12 million MAUs and has added roughly twice as many MAUs as Vinted since February, supporting its potential to succeed in the US apparel resale market.
Despite near-term earnings pressure, Depop's strategy could create meaningful medium-term upside with a projected 37% five-year GMV CAGR and breakeven around 2028.
Depop's elevated spending will result in near-term earnings pressure, with a projected adjusted EBIT loss for FY27.
Increased competition from Vinted in the U.S. market raises profitability risks for the Depop acquisition.
Bernstein believes Vinted's U.S. expansion is unlikely to materially threaten eBay's broader marketplace in the near term due to Vinted's still-small scale.
Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to Underweight and cut its price target to $92 from $105, expecting the Depop acquisition to be more dilutive than anticipated.
Wells Fargo lowered earnings estimates by approximately 10%, placing its forecast about 9% below Street expectations, due to anticipated higher marketing spend for Depop to compete against new entrants in the U.S. market.
Wells Fargo expects Street estimates to move lower, creating further downside risk for the shares.
Bernstein believes Vinted's U.S. expansion could pressure newly acquired Depop's fashion-resale audience, and increased competition may force eBay to raise marketing spend.
Bernstein estimates that every additional $100M of annual investment could reduce eBay's EBIT by approximately 3%, making Depop's burn rate and the path to 2027 earnings growth key investor concerns.
Wells Fargo downgraded the stock, citing the Depop acquisition as more dilutive than expected and potential near-term pressure from Vinted's U.S. expansion on the broader marketplace.
Bernstein noted that Vinted's increasing U.S. app users and paid-channel growth could force eBay to increase marketing spend, with every additional $100 million in annual investment potentially reducing EBIT by approximately 3%.
Depop's burn rate and its path to 2027 earnings growth are key investor concerns.
Net purchase intent is roughly flat at -1%, an approximately 8-point year-over-year improvement and the second-highest reading on record, critically supported by over 10% intent among high-income consumers.
With FXN GMV growth already accelerating from approximately 3% in 1H25 to approximately 12% in 1H26, the 2H26 guide is viewed as conservative.
EBAY/ETSY: Morgan Stanley’s AlphaWise Survey Shows Diverging Marketplaces — EBAY Momentum Implies GMV Upside (OW), ETSY Weakness a “Yellow Flag” (EW)
With FXN GMV growth already accelerating from ~3% in 1H25 to ~12% in 1H26, MS views the 2H26 guide as conservative and calls EBAY its favorite SMID eCommerce name.
Morgan Stanley argues agentic commerce is likely to reshape eCommerce and believes investors are overlooking differentiated advantages.
Morgan Stanley is particularly constructive on the company, highlighting its highly unique inventory base, broad seller ecosystem, and pricing advantages, which could make it one of the best-positioned marketplaces if AI shopping agents become a major traffic source.
Morgan Stanley believes the market is underappreciating the company's positioning in an agentic world.
EBAY +3%/ETSY +1% after MS said market underappreciating positioning in agentic world.
The stock continued to hit new highs, indicating sustained strong performance.
The company continues to screen well in recent consumer survey data, with purchase intent remaining relatively resilient.
The resilient purchase intent supports confidence that recent GMV acceleration can sustain into 2H26.
The firm remains constructive on the company.
ETSY/EBAY: MS Sees Diverging Demand Trends, More Cautious on ETSY While EBAY Momentum Holds
MS remains constructive on EBAY while taking a more cautious near-term view
The analyst heard third-party reports indicating that Q1 GMV growth in both the US and internationally finished above expectations.
The stock continues to perform well, with third-party data suggesting a beat on both US and international Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV).
Third-party reports are positive, citing broad-based GMV improvement in the US and Europe.
Third-party reports indicate that Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) finished a couple of percentage points ahead of street expectations.
Q1 GMV beat street expectations
Q2 GMV guidance is tracking at the high end of expectations
Research through 2026-11-03 · 2025-07-30 to 2026-11-03 · 23 source reports.
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Research through 2026-11-03. Artifact validity does not establish factual accuracy or research freshness.