CRDO can compound beyond copper cables as AI networking demand expands into optical, scale-up and custom-ASIC interconnects.
The opportunity is large, but concentrated customers, demanding expectations and execution constraints leave little room for slippage.
Mizuho sees CRDO as a potential scarcity winner with boosted pricing power due to the LITE/MRVL combination tightening supply.
Mizuho highlights the Positron ASIC, Asimov, as a meaningful new memory-wall opportunity, with CRDO positioned to supply the memory interconnect and potentially earn revenue in FY28.
Positron's plan for roughly one new ASIC per year makes the Asimov development a positive longer-term read-through for CRDO.
The market turned on reports around 9:15am ET that the US and Iran had backed a Qatar/Pakistan compromise proposal, plus a weak pending home sales print that pulled yields lower, with small caps leading (IWM +1.7%). Breadth flipped from yesterday’s narrow b...
JPM sees networking as an increasingly critical gating factor in AI data center infrastructure, which favors Credo Technology Group alongside other compute and foundry beneficiaries.
Stifel expects Credo's 1.6T ZeroFlap ALC to begin shipping in CY27, offering lower power consumption for scale-out/front-end links, and sees the company extending micro-emitters into scale-up with a 6.4T NPO/blind-mate optical backplane.
Stifel believes the ALC total addressable market will ultimately be more than double the AEC total addressable market, indicating significant growth potential for Credo.
Bluefin reported that the company is collaborating closely with NVIDIA to qualify an 800G ZF module for neoclouds.
Concerns about CPO cannibalization are overstated, as NPO ramps next year and XPU scale-up CPO is a 2028 story, both of which will add to existing pluggable solutions.
Semis +10bps lagged with megacap AI up and most everything else down: AVGO +2.1%; NVDA +2.1% worked after Morgan Stanley said both are shielded from the AI power crunch, the latter hitting new all-time highs while the neocloud/BTM complex reversed early gains (NBIS -...
CRDO -2.8% faded an early +1% to as much as -5.8% with no news (members were asking here). We heard Bluefin was out today saying CRDO working closely with NVDA to qualify 800G ZF module for neoclouds. Bulls say that the CPO-cannibalization worry is overdone...
The company traded higher due to sympathy with Marvell's investor day and the expanded connectivity TAM.
ALAB +7.4%; CRDO +4.4% traded as MRVL sympathy on the connectivity TAM.
Bluefin reported that the company is working closely with Nvidia to qualify an 800G ZF module for neoclouds, indicating strong product development and strategic partnerships.
Bulls argue that concerns about CPO cannibalization are overdone, as NPO ramps next year and XPU scale-up CPO is a 2028 story, both of which will add on top of pluggable solutions.
Semis +10bps lagged with megacap AI up and most everything else down: AVGO +2.1%; NVDA +2.1% worked after Morgan Stanley said both are shielded from the AI power crunch, the latter hitting new all-time highs while the neocloud/BTM complex reversed early gains (NBIS -...
CRDO -2.8% faded an early +1% to as much as -5.8% with no news (members were asking here). We heard Bluefin was out today saying CRDO working closely with NVDA to qualify 800G ZF module for neoclouds. Bulls say that the CPO-cannibalization worry is overdone...
The gap between the company’s FY27 outlook and SpaceX commentary likely reflects timing/visibility into AEC orders rather than an architecture shift or share loss, with underlying demand remaining intact.
At ~17x CY28E EPS, the market is seen as underappreciating durable copper/optical growth.
OCP in October showcasing ALC and December/F2Q27 earnings could be a bigger catalyst if SpaceX firms capacity needs and the company guides to a material revenue tailwind.
AEC and ZF Optics remain key upside drivers, with SPCX potentially adding more GB300s and Positron AI's Titan rack deployment implying a significant revenue opportunity.
OmniConnect is expected to begin ramping in 2H27 and could represent another significant revenue opportunity.
The stock continued to benefit from positive sentiment following Jefferies' NYC NDR, with potential for significant additional GB300 units and OmniConnect ramping in 2H27.
The company's SerDes portfolio is considered second only to AVGO/NVDA, and its positioning for slow-and-wide uVCSEL is seen as superior to MRVL, with the pivot from uLED to uVCSEL viewed as a correct strategic move.
CRDO +7.9% still riding Jefferies' NYC NDR (SPCX potentially adding another 660K GB300s; OmniConnect ramping in 2H27). Irrational Analysis also added the name to his portfolio and had some positive comments, saying CRDO’s SerDes portfolio is second only to...
Jefferies became more constructive on the stock after hosting an NDR, despite some clarity issues regarding SPCX.
SPCX's plan to install a significant number of GB300s suggests a potential 50-100% upside from current quarterly revenue levels.
Jefferies views SPCX as a potential future customer for ZF Optics.
The company is expected to showcase its first MicroLED-powered ALCs and potentially outline a MicroVCSEL roadmap at OCP, indicating future product developments.
CRDO +1.3% as Jefferies came back constructive from hosting CRDO’s NDR in NYC yesterday. On SPCX, they admit visibility/messaging is unclear but noted SPCX’s plan to install another 660k GB300s across the Dec quarter, and potentially the Mar quarter, sugges...
COHR/LITE flipped from green early to -6.8%/-6.4% at the lows despite Citi raising its LITE PT to $1,400 (OCS an ~$11B merchant TAM by 2030) and a JPM fireside where COHR said supply, not demand, is the binding constraint. Part of it is the ECOC hangover: t...
Checks remain constructive on Amazon Trainium3, SpaceX's targeted 7-10GW 2027 ramp, and continued deployments by Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle.
1.6T AEC adoption is still early and has the potential to surprise higher next year.
A longer GB300 tail into 2027, even with Vera Rubin ramping, is expected to support rack/cable volumes, with ZFO/SiPho optical and ALC adding further upside.
The company's stock was strong in AI networking, supported by a positive Mizuho note that highlighted positive demand trends and potential upside from 1.6T AEC adoption next year.
AI networking strong: ALAB +12% / CRDO +6%. Didn’t see much here other than the positive Mizuho note calling out +ve Trn 3 demand and saying 1.6T AEC adoption could surprise next year.
The price target was cut due to lower peer multiples.
The company will be demonstrating Dust 1.6 at ECOC next week.
AI networking strong again; ALAB +9%; CRDO +4%
The stock led the AI infra/optical sector, which performed strongly.
The stock performed strongly as part of AI networking.
AI networking strong CRDO +7%; ALAB +6.5%
Optical is viewed as one of the biggest data-center architecture transitions, and tight substrates/epitaxy are supporting pricing.
LITE/AVGO/CRDO: Mizuho sees persistent InP bottleneck and 5x CW laser ramp supporting optical upside
InP substrates remain a key constraint despite capacity rising ~81% in 2026 and ~32% in 2027, with Sumitomo/AXT controlling ~85% of supply and meaningful 6-inch relief unlikely before 2028.
The company has a clear growth trajectory for the back half of the year, driven by strong demand for its connectivity solutions in large-scale AI clusters.
The company missed elevated expectations, leading to a significant stock price decline.
PANW -2% the most debated overnight among investors. We’ll dive into DELL GTLB MDB and PANW then move onto the usual. We’ll put some CRDO Bull vs. Bear Takes in the Slack as soon as we’re done here. Semis -70bps and Software 40bps both down early.
In Tech, a lot of red with Semis/Software both down 2% and Internet -1%. Broad low liquidity de-grossing day: everything red except Telecom (+0.3%), with the damage concentrated in the high multiple growth: Security SW -5.3% (CRWD/S/NET/ZS/FTNT all -5% to -...
AI networking strong: CRDO +6% / ALAB +4%
The company is a cleaner beneficiary of increased accelerator shipments, driving upside to its copper/AEC products.
Semis: Mizuho/SemiAnalysis sees memory de-spec easing GPU bottleneck, upside to CRDO/LITE but pressure on WFE
Mizuho says SemiAnalysis sees future HBM content potentially capped closer to 4– 8Hi, with 16–20Hi stacks/hybrid bonding still uncertain, which could free enough DRAM supply to support ~20–30% more GPU/ASIC shipments and actually raise aggregate DRAM bit de...
Mizuho flagged potential upside for CRDO as AI rack connectivity scales.
Mizuho anticipates stronger 2027 AEC copper demand, accelerating adoption of NPO/SiPho/InP, and potential delays in 800V could extend the 400V architecture cycle, supporting near-term connectivity content.
The company is a positive read-through from strong 2027 AI-server demand, with Vera Rubin potentially exceeding 50K racks and production ramping from late 2026.
Credo’s Weaver memory gearbox is an emerging architecture aimed at flattening the memory hierarchy and improving inference economics.
The company is positioned as a key technology and memory enabler in the AI data center market.
The stock performed strongly, indicating positive sentiment in the networking sector.
The company is arguably the most direct winner from the Kyber delay, as prolonged use of NVLink copper means extended demand for its AECs, while its optical DSP/ZF optics portfolio benefits from pluggables.
GF Securities argues SpaceX is transforming into a neocloud provider, with compute capacity potentially expanding from ~1GW today to 4.5-9.5GW by 2027/28 and requiring ~2.2-2.5M Blackwell-equivalent GPUs. The firm sees CRDO benefiting from accelerating AEC adoption and migration to 200G/lane connectivity.
ISI initiates Credo with an Outperform rating and $325 PT, arguing the company is evolving from a pure AEC story into a broader AI connectivity platform spanning AECs, optical DSPs, silicon photonics, optical ICs, and active optical cables.
The firm expects AEC revenue to grow 100% in CY26 and 60% in CY27, while optical connectivity accelerates to ~25% of revenue by CY27, creating a second major growth engine.
ISI also believes consensus underestimates Credo’s earnings power, modeling CY28 EPS of $13 versus Street at ~$9.40, driven by strong operating leverage, internally sourced optical components, and continued demand for higher-bandwidth AI networking infrastructure.
Following meetings with management, BNP came away more constructive on Credo’s optical opportunity, arguing investors remain too focused on AECs while underappreciating the company’s expanding position across optical DSPs, silicon photonics, active optical cables, DustPhotonics, and future CPO/NPO architectures.
The firm estimates roughly half of Credo’s expected ~80% FY27 growth will come from optics, with optical revenue exceeding $600M in FY27 and optical DSP revenue alone surpassing $100M.
BNP also highlighted improving customer diversification, stronger supply visibility with 12-36 month forecasts from hyperscalers, and a rapidly expanding TAM that now exceeds $10B, while noting Credo is already engaged with five of the six major hyperscalers and multiple neocloud customers.
The stock was weaker, consistent with the overall AI networking sector's underperformance.
The company hit new all-time highs, indicating strong market performance.
The company showed relative strength during the market pullback, which is a good indicator of future leadership.
The company's stock gained a bid after CPO pushback talk earlier in the week.
In Tech, Semis +8% led the way higher with SOX crossing back above ST moving averages. Despite the index still being 3-4% below its highs, we’re already seeing some individual names/themes breakout: Semicap continues its strength with names like LRCX, AMAT...
Copper names continue to gain a bid after the CPO pushback talk early in the week: ALAB/CRDO +11%
This is why investors preferring CPU, Memory, HDDs or Semicaps: lots more near-term upside to feel comfortable with and less “hiccups” If CPO really pushed out, then would be a positive for the copper playsAPH +7%, ALAB -1%, CRDO +5%, etc.
AI networking stocks, including CRDO, are strong.
The company is well-positioned as an AI connectivity platform, with a diversified portfolio beyond copper that includes optical DSPs and SiPho PICs.
The company received positive attention following NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's comments on the continued importance and cost-effectiveness of copper in data center connectivity.
ALAB +11% / CRDO +1.3% getting some love after Jensen’s copper comments despite CRDO missing buyside #s:
The stock's valuation may be stretched given the modest revenue beat and the reliance on a back-half-weighted optical ramp that carries execution risk.
The company missed buyside numbers, which could be a concern despite positive market sentiment.
In Tech, we have a busy week coming up with Earnings from AVGO, CRWD, CRDO, HPE, GTLB, PANW, CIEN, DOCU and more. Computex continues through the week with keynotes INTC’s Lip Bu Tan, and MRVL CEO. BAML’s and ISI’s TMT conferences start Tuesday as well as th...
The company's gross margins were better than expected.
The company's Q4 revenue, gross margin, and EPS exceeded Street expectations.
The stock experienced weakness as it is considered a 'tourist centric' name where many investors do not understand the underlying technology.
The company's top-line numbers missed expectations, disappointing investors who had hoped for more, especially after a significant rally.
JPM argues that networking is increasingly becoming the key bottleneck and performance gating factor for AI infrastructure, leading it to favor networking names over pure compute exposure.
The company's stock continued to act well, indicating strong performance in AI networking.
The company's stock saw an 8% increase, catalyzed by positive snippets in a TheInformation article regarding customer interest in using Trainium.
The stock was weaker despite better ALAB numbers yesterday.
Rothschild Redburn initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a price target of $206, based on the company's strong active electrical cable (AEC) business and a promising transition to high-growth optical networking.
The company's high gross margins and significant year-over-year revenue growth provide a runway for developing its optical franchise through ZeroFlap transceivers and the DustPhotonics acquisition, targeting a $6 billion total addressable market.
Credo is positioned for outsized gains from rising optical demand, with potential >50% cable/content increases as clusters scale due to architectural shifts from Google's TPUv8.
AVGO/ARM/MU/CRDO/LITE: Mizuho Highlights TPUv8 as Catalyst for Networking and Memory Upside
The firm adds CRDO and LITE are positioned for outsized gains from rising optical demand, with potential >50% cable/content increases as clusters scale. Mizuho believes TPUv8 drives incremental upside across semis and networking as AI infrastructure complex...
The stock was weak, indicating a broader negative trend in the networking sector.
Networking weak and didn’t see much here either: ALAB/CRDO -7-8%
The acquisition of Dustphotonics helped shift the narrative, positioning the company to benefit from optical technologies, contributing to its strong performance and recovery from recent lows.
Both ALAB and CRDO (+5%) are up close to 100% since the end of last month and a couple of the best performers helped by the bid to laggards and short covering as many had been using both as funding shorts for other AI semis given the copper —> optical bear...
The company is expected to benefit in the near term from copper interconnects extending further than expected in AI networking due to cost and yield advantages.
The company is identified as a leading beneficiary of the broader AI data center interconnect TAM, which could reach ~$22B by 2029.
Mizuho says AI networking is evolving into a hybrid copper-optical paradigm, with copper interconnects extending further than expected (to ~1.6T and potentially 3.2T) due to cost and yield advantages, benefiting CRDO and AVGO in the near term. The firm note...
The company's stock declined, indicating it was taking a breather.
William Blair raised estimates after the DustPhotonics acquisition call, with management upgrading FY27 revenue growth guidance to 75%+ year-over-year, citing an optical inflection across DSPs, ZF Optics, and DustPhotonics’ standalone PIC business.
The CEO emphasized that vertical integration of DSP and PIC eliminates third-party margin stacking, lifts ZF gross margins, and accelerates product development for 1.6T/3.2T zero-flap modules.
DustPhotonics’ laser-based CPO/NPO solutions provide a more mainstream avenue alongside MicroLED, giving the company a second vector as co-packaged optics adoption scales.
The deal is expected to be accretive to earnings starting FY27.
Investors responded positively to the Dustphotonics acquisition, which increases the company's optical exposure.
difference between both: Sentiment here (and among minders) continues to pick given GPU pricing + demand/supply dynamics, especially more noise around DCs running into roadblocks in some places (today it was Maine announcing DC moratorium) Neoclouds ZIHEZ:...
The acquisition of Dustphotonics will vertically integrate Credo's connectivity stack, addressing both electrical and optical interconnects for AI infrastructure buildout.
DustPhotonics' differentiated portfolio of SiPho PICs, spanning 400G, 800G, and 1.6T with a roadmap to 3.2T, integrates key optical functions onto a single chip.
The acquisition pushes back against a key bear point that Credo lacked optical exposure, as the addition of CPO/NPO content via Dustphotonics positions them as an optical player.
The acquisition is expected to help the company achieve mid-60s gross margins on transceivers.
The acquisition of DustPhotonics is strategically well-aligned, bringing silicon photonics integrated circuits (SiPho PICs) in-house to complement existing offerings and opening an estimated $6B TAM by 2030.
Management now targets over $500M in combined optical revenue by FY27, significantly higher than a prior estimate, and the deal is expected to be non-GAAP EPS accretive in FY27.
The acquisition extends Credo's content opportunity across both copper and optical, following previous tuck-ins.
AI Vibes in full force this morning with BE +12% after expanding their partnership with ORCL and CRDO +18% after their Dustphotonics acquisition. Feels like the good ol’ days of last year’s HOT AI SUMMER — even ORCL is catching a bid these days!
BofA reiterated a Buy rating, arguing that the recent selloff was driven by misplaced CPO fears.
The company's AEC products serve front-of-rack scale-out connections and are not exposed to potential CPO adoption in back-end scale-up architectures, making the two technologies complementary.
Recent headlines from Microsoft and Meta are early-stage or non-operational and do not impact near-term demand.
Management indicated that current AEC deployments support 100G per lane and are transitioning to 200G, with PCIe 6.0 AECs expected to ramp in 1H27 due to growing scale-out networking demand.
There is uncertainty regarding the defensibility of ZF margins compared to AECs.
The ALC ramp in F28 is not without risk.
The analyst noted that management's statement about CPO momentum not significantly impacting the AEC business was not entirely reassuring.
The stock is down 17% year-to-date and 37% from its high, and the analyst is considering a potential longer-term short position.
Rosenblatt initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a $170 price target, forecasting revenue to nearly triple and earnings to more than quadruple in FY26.
Near-term strength is attributed to Credo's technology stack, early leadership in 400G and 800G, and traction in up to 7-meter AI data center scale-out and scale-up connectivity.
The outlook is tempered by the imminent arrival of additional competition.
CRDO -9% / ALAB -4%: your guess as good as mine
The company is preferred in AI hardware, alongside AMD, if cloud capex visibility improves and GTC re-energizes sentiment.
The company is expected to benefit from persistent AI strength in interconnect and optical with scale-up/out/across and 800G/1.6T in 2026E.
AI strength is expected to persist across GPUs and ASICs (positive NVDA, DELL, AVGO), AI interconnect and optical with scale-up/out/across and 800G/1.6T (positive LITE, CRDO), and continued tailwinds for WFE (positive LRCX) alongside a memory supercycle wit...
Credo is a high-growth, high-margin pure-play on AI connectivity with strong multi-year visibility and multiple new multi-billion-dollar product pillars.
Extreme customer concentration poses a risk, and the current valuation embeds a near-perfect outcome.
Research through 2026-11-02 · 2025-12-02 to 2026-11-02 · 52 source reports.
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Research through 2026-11-03. Artifact validity does not establish factual accuracy or research freshness.