CHKP’s low valuation and durable cash generation offer recovery upside if channel execution stabilizes and security demand broadens.
Weak channel checks, billings pressure, and muted catalysts raise the risk that CHKP’s recovery takes longer than valuation bulls expect.
The stock caught a bid as cyber security names rallied following an increase in PHP2Shell attacks.
AI is already creating pipeline at PANW/CRWD, but the real purchasing inflection is expected in C4Q26/CY27. Preferred names: CRWD, PANW, NET, OKTA and ZS; FTNT likely another upside print, CHKP more subdued.
Check Point's performance is expected to be more subdued.
The company's performance was softer in the cybersecurity VAR call.
Deteriorating channel checks, bookings weakness, and execution issues suggest the company's turnaround will take longer than expected.
Barclays' VAR check showed the company declined year-over-year, indicating weak performance.
PANW/CRWD/ZS/RBRK Lead Barclays’ Strong 2Q Security VAR Check; FTNT/OKTA Mixed, CHKP Weak
Barclays is more cautious due to billings pressure and limited catalysts.
NET/VRNS/CCC/FTNT Preferred Into Earnings; Barclays More Cautious on CHKP, TENB and GEN
FTNT checks remain healthy, but pull-forward risk could re-emerge later in the year. Barclays is more cautious on CHKP given billings pressure and limited catalysts, TENB after an 85% intra-quarter rally, and GEN, where MoneyLion synergies are more weighted...
Firewall demand surprised to the upside, though component-driven price increases (including one-week-valid quotes) are driving some pull-forward and complicating large refreshes — supporting near-term upside for FTNT, PANW, and CHKP but raising demand-durab...
Scotiabank upgraded Check Point to Sector Outperform, arguing recent execution issues are fully reflected in the stock.
AI-driven cyber spending should improve demand for core infrastructure and firewalls.
The firm believes the stock’s roughly 40% decline and valuation near 11x FY27 EBITDA understate the potential recovery as enterprises strengthen security against more sophisticated AI threats.
The price target was raised to $185.
OKTA +5% to new highs as Scotia upgraded to buy saying co is an underappreciated AI beneficiary through expanding endpoint security, AI runtime protection and Purple AI. Rest of cyber also strong on that Scotia note where they also upgraded S and CHKP and C...
The stock's valuation has become disconnected from the durability of its recurring revenue and free cash flow generation, with shares trading at just 4.3x EV/NTM recurring revenue and 8.0x EV/NTM FCF, suggesting the bad news is already priced in.
Continued share repurchases are expected, and improving channel sentiment and go-to-market execution provide upside without requiring dramatic acceleration in growth.
In the U.S., Software +1% outperforming Semis -1% early with the former helped by a few upgrades from Difucci at Guggenheim (CRM, NOW, CHKP). Memory following Korea memory names lower (SNDK -5%, MU -3%). HDDs and Semicap also weak to start the new month.
Near-term disruption to product revenue is expected, and growth will likely remain in the single digits due to concerns around its go-to-market transition.
The stock saw an increase, driven by positive commentary on the cybersecurity space and anticipated White House executive order on cybersecurity and AI safety.
Channel checks were skewed positive, with the largest partner expecting significant growth driven by email and SASE traction.
CHKP skewed positive (largest partner sees 10%+ growth on email/SASE traction); FTNT encouraging but debate remains whether improvement is genuine reaccel or hardware refresh.
JPMorgan highlights memory pricing as a potential headwind for firewall vendors, noting that memory can account for roughly 10%–25% of firewall BOM, and expects cost pressure to gradually flow through the channel.
Budget reallocation from other IT spend categories exposed to rising memory costs could weigh on firewall demand at the margin.
The company is seen as less exposed to memory-driven pressure among firewall vendors.
PANW / FTNT / CHKP: JPM Flags Memory Price Risk as Potential Overhang for Firewall Vendors
Chinese authorities have instructed domestic companies to stop using cybersecurity software from U.S. and Israeli firms, including Check Point Software Technologies, due to national security concerns.
Citi added a downside 90-day view on the company (Neutral, PT cut to $200) due to survey signals pointing to weaker hardware and firewall refresh activity in 2026.
The company shows healthier pipelines into January, despite being down in November/December.
The company was down in November/December, contributing to security growth being slightly below plan in Q4.
PANW and CHKP were down in Nov/Dec, though both show healthier pipelines into January, while
Q2 Billings beat street expectations
Full-year 2025 revenue guidance was only reiterated rather than raised
Research through 2026-10-22 · 2025-07-30 to 2026-10-22 · 17 source reports.
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Research through 2026-11-03. Artifact validity does not establish factual accuracy or research freshness.