Broadcom can compound custom-ASIC and networking growth as AI labs scale deployments, with strong TPU economics and multi-generation design wins supporting upside to estimates.
The growth case depends heavily on externally financed AI buildouts and concentrated TPU programs; guarantees, competition, and deployment constraints could impair estimates and valuation.
Mizuho sees AVGO as a potential scarcity winner with boosted pricing power due to the LITE/MRVL combination tightening supply.
Blackstone expects Anthropic to carry a high speculative-grade rating after its IPO, affecting a $63B TPU financing package where over $42B of senior debt has Broadcom guarantees.
Barclays became significantly more bullish on the company, as the Anthropic deal implies strong TPU rack economics, suggesting substantial AI revenue potential.
The Anthropic SPV implies approximately $35B/GW of total TPU rack value, only ~13% below NVIDIA's Vera Rubin, indicating competitive positioning in AI hardware.
Solving for Google's cloud margin suggests approximately $18.2B/GW for the company's chips/networking, implying significantly higher CY27 and CY28 AI revenue than Street estimates.
The company has discussed substantial AI-lab deployments in CY27/28, and residual-value support has improved, leading to a materially more positive view on TPU economics and scale.
New financing structures for AI compute de-risk future revenue and confirm the durability of the AI ASIC cycle.
AVGO +2.6% on a DA Davidson Upgrade and $63B in funding. Software -0.4% led lower by HUBS -2.5% after a UBS downgrade.
AVGO: KeyBanc confirms Anthropic ASIC win, raises OpenAI volumes and says META Apollo remains in play
The company's stock price increased as the Street processed the Anthropic SPV, with an upgrade to Buy from DA Davidson, who argued the stock was pricing in near-zero odds of an Anthropic IPO or further OpenAI funding.
KeyBanc confirmed the company secured Anthropic's ASIC deal for late 2028/early 2029, with significant lifetime units, and maintained its forecast for substantial AI revenue in FY27/FY28.
The Anthropic financing deal increased confidence among bulls that Anthropic can afford the company's chips, and bulls argue the company's exposure to guarantees declines over time as lease payments are made.
KeyBanc says AVGO has officially won Anthropic’s ASIC, a potentially sizable late- 2028/early-2029 program with ~5–10M lifetime units, while correcting its prior view that META’s Apollo training ASIC had gone to MTK; that award remains open and AVGO is stil...
The company is taking on increased risk to secure sales, with UBS estimating substantial guarantees across two deals, potentially leaving the company to cover shortfalls if Anthropic cannot pay.
DA Davidson upgraded to Buy, arguing AVGO is pricing in near-zero odds of an Anthropic IPO/raise or more OpenAI funding. KeyBanc said AVGO has officially won Anthropic’s ASIC (late-2028/early-2029, ~5-10M lifetime units), while META’s Apollo training ASIC r...
PCB maker TTMI -27.7% on its print, 920 in Slack here noting it “missed their DC guide for Q3. Said timing” with one of three higher-layer-count programs pushed out, and AB here hearing from shorts that the call flagged “some TPU guys cough cough Tan T...
Clev is positive, seeing upside to the October quarter driven by XPU shipments and price increases.
The company is an undervalued ASIC leader with significant growth potential from increased demand from major AI labs and diversification of its customer base.
Broadcom would guarantee $42B of senior debt in Anthropic's $60B financing, indicating a significant role and potential benefit for Broadcom.
Fubon views Broadcom as the most undervalued ASIC name, with OpenAI demand raised to approximately 3M units in 2027 from 1M prior, and Anthropic's first AVGO ASIC expected to tape out mid-2027 for 2H28 production.
The company's CDS spreads widened due to hedging activities by bond buyers financing its customers' TPU purchases, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of perceived risk.
The CEO stated that financing, rather than memory supply, is the largest obstacle to sustaining AI-driven growth, as the scale of required investment makes access to capital a significant constraint.
The CEO noted that AI's constraint is shifting from compute to capital, and while OpenAI's $50B revenue run-rate validates demand, profitability and enterprise token usage still lack clear ROI.
AVGO -1.9%: JPM named it a top pick heading into 3Q earnings season, seeing custom XPUs going from ~32% of accelerator units in CY25 to ~43% in CY26 and ~56% in CY27.
The shift from GPU-centric clusters toward heterogeneous GPU/CPU/ASIC/wafer-scale systems and open rack-scale standards is positive for the company.
Citi expects OCP to highlight a shift from GPU-centric clusters toward heterogeneous GPU/CPU/ASIC/wafer-scale systems and open rack-scale standards, positive for AMD/MRVL/AVGO. Power should center on 800V DC adoption, favoring TXN/MPWR/AEIS/Delta, while con...
The company is discussing over $50 billion in financing for OpenAI's custom-chip program, indicating significant involvement in the growing AI chip market.
AVGO / ORCL / SPCX: AI chip financing expands with $50B-plus OpenAI deal – WSJ AVGO / ORCL / SPCX WSJ⸺OpenAI $50B
The stock is underperforming as an OpenAI chip supplier, with concerns regarding the lack of self-funding for the AI infrastructure projects it supports.
The company is considered shielded from the AI power crunch impacting the chip supply chain.
UBS checks indicate strong engagement with Google's TPU franchise, with a new 3nm multi-chip design expected to drive most 2028 volume and a 2nm v10 potentially taking the majority of Google TPU volume in 2029, which supports the long-term bull case and mitigates concerns about MediaTek gains.
Semis +10bps lagged with megacap AI up and most everything else down: AVGO +2.1%; NVDA +2.1% worked after Morgan Stanley said both are shielded from the AI power crunch, the latter hitting new all-time highs while the neocloud/BTM complex reversed early gains (NBIS -...
AVGO +2.1%; NVDA +2.1% worked after MS said both are shielded as the AI power crunch hits the chip supply chain.
The company outperformed as investors processed details of a record $60 billion financing for Anthropic's TPU orders, with AVGO backing a significant portion of the senior loans.
Marvell's sizing of the custom-silicon TAM at $235 billion by 2030 provides a positive backdrop for AVGO.
Concerns about the guarantee on the Anthropic financing are being downplayed as a 'pretty small piece,' and positioning is still considered 'washed out,' suggesting potential for upside.
AVGO +4.7% outperformed as investors digested the FT’s details on the record $60B financing for Anthropic’s 2027 TPU orders (AVGO backs the $42B of senior loans; the $18B junior tranche carries no AVGO guarantee) alongside MRVL sizing the custom-silicon TAM...
Morgan Stanley believes the company is shielded from the AI power crunch impacting the chip supply chain.
UBS TPU checks indicate continued deep engagement with Google beyond v8i, with a new 3nm multi-chip design expected to drive most 2028 volume and a 2nm v10 potentially taking the majority of Google TPU volume in 2029.
The UBS checks support the long-term bull case that the Google TPU franchise remains intact into 2029, alleviating concerns about MediaTek gaining share at Google.
Semis +10bps lagged with megacap AI up and most everything else down: AVGO +2.1%; NVDA +2.1% worked after Morgan Stanley said both are shielded from the AI power crunch, the latter hitting new all-time highs while the neocloud/BTM complex reversed early gains (NBIS -...
AVGO +2.1%; NVDA +2.1% worked after MS said both are shielded as the AI power crunch hits the chip supply chain.
Management framed FY27/FY28 AI revenue guidance as conservative, with v8i ramping in 2027 and its flagship XPU customer committed to the next two generations shipping in 2028/29.
The company confirmed ~4–5GW/year of XPU shipments in CY27.
The analyst sees rising content from SRAM, ARM CPU, and advanced packaging, while networking is already ~30% of AI revenue and could grow faster as Tomahawk 7 doubles throughput and switch/interconnect counts rise.
Powered-shell constraints are viewed as a timing issue rather than structural.
The company's banking syndicate is preparing a $60B financing package to fund AI chips and infrastructure for Anthropic and other customers.
The company agreed to provide Anthropic with a significant financing facility, potentially covering a substantial portion of its TPU leasing commitment.
The debt could convert into Anthropic equity, and the company may designate a financing partner, indicating strategic flexibility.
Anthropic is expected to become the company's largest compute customer in 2027, highlighting a significant and growing partnership.
CRDO +7.9% still riding Jefferies' NYC NDR (SPCX potentially adding another 660K GB300s; OmniConnect ramping in 2H27). Irrational Analysis also added the name to his portfolio and had some positive comments, saying CRDO’s SerDes portfolio is second only to...
The stock lagged after the company agreed to lend Anthropic a significant amount of money.
The company continues to be viewed as a popular funding short among investors.
Broadcom and Toppan opened their Singapore advanced-substrate facility three months ahead of schedule, with mass production planned before year-end.
The venture will supply substrates for Broadcom’s Tomahawk 6 switches and AI accelerators.
Further expansion is already being discussed amid severe substrate shortages.
AVGO: Hearing 3p saying TSM CoWoS allocation trimmed to mid 200s from high 200s due to TPU 8i/SunFish ramp pushed out and uncertainty on META volumes.
AVGO +1.6% shrugged off 3p chatter that TSM trimmed its CoWoS allocation to the mid-200s from the high-200s (TPU 8i/SunFish ramp pushed out, META volume uncertainty); the S-1’s $161.2B of AVGO-related leases is the more important number I heard investors fo...
Third-party reports indicate TSMC CoWoS allocation was trimmed to mid-200s from high-200s due to TPU 8i/SunFish ramp pushed out and uncertainty on META volumes.
TSEM closed at the lows with no news after a +14% five-day run. Wolfe’s ECOC recap was about as bullish on demand as it gets (META showed amplifier huts going from 48 fiber pairs to >4,000; Lightera has closed its fiber order book; PAM4 DSPs sold out throug...
China's state-assets regulator is reviewing Broadcom's switch use at state-backed data centers, potentially leading to informal guidance to reduce purchases, with Broadcom's penetration among state-owned companies as high as 90%.
Conversations with various companies consistently indicated strong AI infrastructure demand despite ongoing debates about AI regulation.
Memory and storage demand continues to exceed supply.
Agentic CPU demand is expected to broaden from head nodes and traditional servers in 2027 to sandbox workloads in 2028, benefiting next-generation Vera, Venice, and Diamond Rapids CPUs.
CXL is gaining traction, with CXL 2.0 ramping at Meta and Microsoft, and CXL 3.0 being crucial for broader adoption.
Management believes Anthropic and OpenAI could each become as large as Google by 2028, with Anthropic representing a significant 5GW opportunity separate from Google.
Demand for 2027 is stronger than anticipated, with OpenAI pulling Jalapeño forward, and power, wafers, and memory increasingly becoming the gating constraints.
BNP says broader 200G/lane 102T switch ASIC support from MRVL/AVGO/NVDA/CSCO should enable the 1.6T optical transceiver ramp beginning CQ4’26 across Vera Rubin, MI455x Helios and Google TPUv8.
NVDA +1%: IR was out talking to sell-side and investors. One of the key takeaways passed along to me from the calls was that IR was more specific on the vendor financing mechanics: NVDA’s residual value guarantee is capped around 25% — vs AVGO’s first tranc...
The CEO dismissed concerns about slowing frontier AI development, reaffirming the company's FY27/FY28 AI semiconductor revenue targets.
Compute demand remains strong and durable, with Anthropic still on track to become Broadcom's largest custom-chip customer in 2027, and inference demand is particularly robust.
The company struggled to find a bid as investors continued to worry about MediaTek share loss.
Optical is viewed as one of the biggest data-center architecture transitions, and tight substrates/epitaxy are supporting pricing.
LITE/AVGO/CRDO: Mizuho sees persistent InP bottleneck and 5x CW laser ramp supporting optical upside
Mizuho says InP substrates remain the key constraint despite capacity rising ~81% in 2026 and ~32% in 2027, with Sumitomo/AXT controlling ~85% of supply and meaningful 6-inch relief unlikely before 2028. Mizuho sees LITE particularly well positioned with ~3...
InP substrates remain a key constraint despite capacity rising ~81% in 2026 and ~32% in 2027, with Sumitomo/AXT controlling ~85% of supply and meaningful 6-inch relief unlikely before 2028.
Blackstone is financing Broadcom TPU deployments, positioning itself as a major capital provider to the AI ecosystem, which suggests significant demand and investment in Broadcom's AI-related offerings.
Piper initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $460 price target, highlighting custom ASIC leadership and approximately 30% networking attach as key AI advantages.
Piper believes AVGO is particularly well-positioned for hyperscaler and AI-lab inference workloads due to its custom ASIC contracts.
Piper also emphasizes networking, which accounts for approximately 30% of AI revenue, as a differentiated attach opportunity and sees AVGO becoming increasingly strategic as architectures transition toward silicon photonics.
Piper ranks MRVL alongside NVDA and AVGO as a long-term winner in XPU compute and says Marvell leads in custom attach. Piper also flags the upcoming analyst day as a potential catalyst to sharpen the growth framework and custom-silicon opportunity.
Demand for AI networking and custom silicon remains strong, with hyperscale and enterprise refresh cycles acting as tailwinds.
The company faces ongoing content loss in non-AI segments and some churn in software to competitors.
CEO Hock Tan defended the company's substantial AI revenue path, indicating confidence in its ability to capitalize on the AI market.
The binding constraint for AI is power-ready sites rather than silicon, which Broadcom can secure for 2027, suggesting a strategic advantage in a critical resource.
The CEO's value framework highlighted that one gigawatt generates significant ARR for frontier models, with frontier models earning a large share of revenue, suggesting a favorable market structure for companies like Broadcom that enable these models.
The company is planning a die roadmap from two dies to four to eight, indicating continuous innovation and product development.
A December capital-return decision is expected, with record cash, mid-40s free-cash-flow margins next year, and a dividend increase plus buyback as realistic options, signaling strong financial health and shareholder returns.
The CEO pushed back on the circularity critique of the Apollo/Blackstone platform, suggesting there are concerns about the financing model.
JPMorgan expects AVGO's FY26 AI revenue to exceed $56 billion and projects FY27 AI revenue to grow 2-2.5x to over $130 billion, significantly above management's current $100 billion+ framework.
The projected AI revenue growth is driven by Google TPU ramps, Meta MTIA, OpenAI Jalapeño, Anthropic, and strong demand for Tomahawk 5/6 networking.
JPMorgan argues that fears of Google TPU share loss are overstated, as other vendors are primarily supporting Google's broader COT and TPU-attach ecosystem rather than displacing AVGO's core role, which is protected by a 5-year TPU v8–v11 agreement.
FY28 also appears stronger due to TPU v9, larger custom ASIC programs, and higher networking attach, broadening the AI growth story.
AVGO: JPM sees FY27 AI revenue >$130B, says Google TPU share-loss fears are overstated
JPMorgan's checks suggest MediaTek could surpass Broadcom in Google TPUv8 units in 2027 and become the primary vendor for TPUv9 in 2028, with no evidence of a competing Broadcom Pumafish project for 2028.
MediaTek's TPUv8t Zebrafish ramp appears smooth and is on track to reach over $2 billion in revenues in 2026, with potential for higher unit shipments than Broadcom's Sunfish variant in 2027, driving Datacenter ASIC revenues to $18 billion.
$AVGO negative read-through from JPM’s MediaTek note:
The CEO's chatter about a potential 20-30GW AI opportunity by 2028 implies significant EPS, which aligns with or exceeds bullish expectations.
Large cap names up in sympathy with NVDA: TSM +2.3% and AVGO +4.5%
RBC expects a slight beat and raise driven by strong networking demand across Tomahawk/Jericho, PCIe, and optical products.
Management could potentially lift the FY27 AI revenue framework towards Street expectations, indicating strong future growth in AI.
MediaTek/MRVL are unlikely to meaningfully disrupt the company's long-term position despite competitive noise around Google TPU sockets.
RBC models significant FY27 custom ASIC revenue and sees additional upside from networking.
AMD's Helios architecture demonstrates a much more mature open-Ethernet scale-up stack, which is positive for the company.
RBC expects a modest beat/raise driven mainly by networking, with strong demand across Tomahawk/Jericho, PCIe and optical helping offset lingering TPU share concerns. The key debate is FY27 AI revenue: RBC thinks management could lift the prior $100B+ frame...
Lingering TPU share concerns could offset strong demand in other areas.
A lower-margin TPU mix remains a gross margin headwind.
William Blair’s main Hot Chips takeaway is that differentiation is moving beyond raw FLOPS toward full-system architecture across compute, memory, networking, software and reliability. Nvidia still has the clear lead, but AMD’s Helios architecture shows a m...
OpenAI's Jalapeno validating AVGO's networking, physical-design, packaging, and supply-chain capabilities makes AVGO a clear winner.
The performance of Jalapeno could create a meaningful new ASIC revenue stream for AVGO.
UBS still expects a strong near-term AI ramp, with AI revenue rising from approximately $16 billion in F3Q to approximately $21–22 billion in F4Q, helped by Anthropic TPU shipments and continued Google deployment growth.
MRVL's new Google inference engagement does not appear to cannibalize AVGO's core TPU role, and AVGO remains Google's "plan of record."
The company is a key beneficiary of the broadening optical scale-up in AI networking.
224G/lane SerDes and larger switch radix are supporting continued scale-up/scale-out growth.
deployment growth. More incrementally, UBS says MRVL’s new Google inference engagement does not appear to cannibalize AVGO’s core TPU role and reiterates that AVGO remains Google’s “plan of record,” but trims CY27 AI revenue to ~$130B as prior TPU unit assu...
BNP also sees 224G/lane SerDes and larger switch radix supporting continued scale-up/scale-out growth for AVGO/ANET, while optical engine standardization favors MRVL, LITE, COHR and MTSI.
UBS trimmed its CY27 AI revenue estimate to approximately $130 billion as prior TPU unit assumptions proved too aggressive, and cut the price target to $470 from $485.
The stock has fallen below the "Leopold Low" level, indicating a significant decline.
The stock has fallen 12.4% from its high, indicating a substantial downturn.
Cleb sees upside to software revenues driven by renewals and price increases.
JPM states that Google's TPU roadmap is intact, with AVGO's 5-year agreement locking in the next four TPU generations, and TPU v9 ramping.
FY26 AI revenue is tracking over $56 billion, representing a 180% year-over-year increase, with Tomahawk 5 demand still exceeding supply.
JPM argues that activity from MRVL, AMD, and Alchip is focused on TPU-attach/support chips rather than displacing AVGO’s core TPU design wins.
JPM reiterates an Overweight rating, viewing current concerns as disconnected from AVGO’s long-standing design/IP advantage and execution track record.
AVGO: JPM says Google TPU roadmap intact, FY26 AI sales tracking $56B+
JPM says recent concerns around Google custom silicon competition are misplaced: AVGO’s 5-year Google agreement locks in the next four TPU generations, while TPU v9 is now ramping and the next 2nm XPU ASIC remains on track for CY28 with no CoWoS cuts or del...
Citi models FY27 AI revenue at $116 billion, below its prior target and significantly below Street expectations of approximately $130 billion, due to customer datacenter readiness, power/permitting constraints, and a Google/LLM-heavy mix.
The increasing mix of AI ASICs, projected to rise from approximately 36% of sales in FY26 to approximately 49% in FY27, is expected to pressure gross margins.
MediaTek's share gains are an overhang, with Citi estimating approximately $18 billion of 2027 ASIC sales for MediaTek.
The firm's FY27 AI semi work supports revenue exceeding $140 billion, surpassing management's framework, with upside tied to XPU deployment and monetization.
Workload-specific silicon should expand the overall Total Addressable Market (TAM) despite custom XPU competition.
The stock received a positive research note.
The main debate for the company remains custom XPU competition.
The company is a positive read-through from strong 2027 AI-server demand, with Vera Rubin potentially exceeding 50K racks and production ramping from late 2026.
The stock saw a negative move due to lower supply-gated TPU demand, potentially related to AMD working with Google on a TPU project.
AVGO: Semianalysis says AMD might be working with GOOG on TPU project and AVGO is seeing lower supply gated TPU demand (out Friday, but just flagging for the reason for the AMD +3% / AVGO -5%) move
AVGO could pressure the high-speed EML market through bundling, COHR could eventually add significant 6-inch InP capacity, and Chinese suppliers could become more credible over time. A large transceiver ramp could also slow GM expansion because modules rema...
BofA Credit downgraded AVGO bonds and issuer exposure to Marketweight despite raising 2026 revenue/EBITDA estimates by roughly 10%/13%, stating that XPV financing creates more complicated spread and residual-value risk.
BofA Credit models peak RVG exposure around $26B in September 2027 and a maximum loss of roughly $42B across 20GW by mid-2029 under a 100% default scenario, with even a 25% default implying about $10.5B of losses.
While the exposure is manageable relative to Broadcom's FCF and non-AI earnings, rising leverage and potential rating-agency treatment make the risk non-trivial.
BofA Credit downgraded the stock due to concerns that XPV financing creates more complicated spread and residual-value risk.
MediaTek's earlier-than-expected 400G SerDes IP arrival in 2H27 poses a negative read-through for Broadcom, as it could support Google TPU V10 adoption and create future risk to Broadcom's Google TPU share and pricing.
NVDA/AMD/AVGO: Jefferies Fubon Raises 2027 CoWoS Outlook as AI Packaging Demand Broadens
JPM reiterated Overweight, stating that Broadcom’s expanded Samsung memory and foundry partnership implies over $200 billion of Samsung purchases over five years, with Samsung expected to supply a significant portion of AVGO’s HBM needs.
JPM estimates the agreement supports over $1 trillion of cumulative Broadcom AI revenue from 2026–30, including ASIC and networking, alongside substantial Samsung foundry chip sales.
The outlook implies a significant CAGR in AVGO’s AI revenue through 2030 and reinforces Broadcom’s leadership across custom AI silicon, switching, and routing.
AVGO: JPM Sees Samsung MOU Supporting More Than $1T of Cumulative AI Revenue Through 2030
The stock has performed relatively well over the past couple of weeks.
Morgan Stanley reiterates an Overweight rating, believing the company will retain a significant share of Google's TPU business.
The firm believes rapid displacement by competitors is unlikely due to factors like HBM supply constraints, advanced-packaging complexity, and system-level execution.
New ASIC programs are expected to reduce the mix of TPU in the company's AI revenue, diversifying its AI portfolio.
Morgan Stanley continues to view the company as a core AI compute winner, second only to NVDA.
The firm believes constrained HBM supply, advanced-packaging complexity and system-level execution make rapid displacement unlikely, while new ASIC programs should reduce TPU’s mix of AVGO AI revenue from roughly 75% today to about 60% in FY28. Morgan Stanl...
The company is expected to maintain approximately 80% of Google's TPU share, countering bear fears of a decline to 50%, with MediaTek gaining only a modest, additive position.
AVGO +1.3% as MS was out defending TPU share saying they expect AVGO to retain roughly 80% of Google’s TPU share over time vs bears fearing 50%, with MediaTek likely gaining a modest, additive position rather than disrupting Broadcom’s scaled platform.
The company is tracking to upside in the July quarter, driven by strong demand in AI semi, software, and non-AI semi segments.
Management directly rebutted key bear debates, leading to increased confidence in the company's outlook.
The next-gen Google TPU (v9) roadmap is "totally on track" for a CY28 ramp with 400G SerDes already working, and the 5-year Google deal embeds rising revenues and majority volume share, easing share-loss fears.
The Apple relationship extends through 2031 with new ASIC sockets plus RF.
Inference is accelerating custom XPU adoption, with frontier builders trending toward approximately 50/50 XPU/GPU next year.
Tomahawk 6 is sold out, indicating strong demand.
Management dismissed hyperscaler in-house tooling concerns due to multi-die packaging complexity.
Management successfully rebutted key bear arguments, particularly regarding the next-gen Google TPU roadmap, which is on track for a CY28 ramp with working 400G SerDes.
The 5-year Google deal embeds rising revenues and a majority volume share, alleviating concerns about potential share loss.
The company secured a significant renewal with Apple, committing substantial revenue through 2031.
Also: more detail came out around the in the AAPL renewal with AAPL committing $30B to AVGO through 2031.
The company outperformed, following calls hosted by J.P. Morgan with management.
AVGO -80bps also outperformed as JPM hosted calls with mgmt.
The extension of the partnership with Apple through 2031 provides contracted, high-margin revenue visibility for over five years, addressing concerns that the business was seen as declining.
The new agreement eliminates the narrative that radio frequency (RF) business would follow Wi-Fi in decline.
The language regarding a 'range of custom chips' suggests a broadening of the relationship, likely formalizing AI silicon work, as Apple has been collaborating with Broadcom on its first AI server chip.
AVGO leading the way higher after renewing with AAPL through 2031, the usual suspects on a semi up day (HDDs/Memory/semicap) outperforming early, and AMD catching a bid on the NVDA Kyber delay news getting passed around.
The Kyber pushout makes the company's ASIC offerings more competitive, further supported by an Apple renewal.
Jefferies argues the recent selloff has created an attractive entry point, with checks indicating Broadcom’s TPU v9 roadmap remains on track and investor concerns around MediaTek competition are overdone.
The firm believes Broadcom’s long-term TPU agreement with Google, expanding custom silicon relationship with OpenAI, and broader ASIC customer diversification support materially higher earnings power.
Jefferies believes OpenAI’s new XPU offers compelling performance-per-watt advantages and could become an important second growth engine beyond Google.
The stock was down due to increased talk of Google and MediaTek collaborating on TPU V9.
AVGO -4.5% after more talk of GOOGL and Mediatek getting closer for TPU V9, this time from Ming-Chi Kuo:
JPM believes that concerns regarding delays or cancellations of Broadcom's TPU v9 2nm program are unfounded, with checks indicating no delays and the TPU roadmap extending through at least the next four generations.
JPM estimates that TPU v9 could generate significant incremental FY28 XPU revenue and that Broadcom is well-positioned to increase its TPU content through 2031 due to its expanded agreement with Google.
JPM views Google's current TPU v8 program's optimization challenges as a factor that strengthens Broadcom's position by making Google less likely to diversify suppliers.
JPM argues that investors continue to undervalue Broadcom's combination of advanced packaging, chip design expertise, and execution, which should ensure its continued leadership in benefiting from hyperscaler AI infrastructure spending.
Wolfe believes that the Apollo/Blackstone financing vehicle could support roughly triple Anthropic's AI XPU volume compared to FY25 levels, implying substantial incremental FY26 XPU revenue, and that AVGO has residual value guarantees to mitigate financing risk.
Wolfe argues that if the financing package is completed, the focus will shift from FY27 demand sustainability to continued AI shipment growth, thereby removing a significant overhang on the stock.
The company's TPU v9 2nm program is not experiencing delays or cancellations, with the roadmap extending through at least the next four generations.
A financing vehicle could substantially increase Anthropic's AI XPU volume compared to FY25 levels, implying significant incremental XPU revenue by FY28.
Investors are encouraged to focus on the company's potential for strong EPS in FY28, rather than concerns about margins or competition during a period of limited news.
The stock saw a bid despite underperforming, suggesting underlying support.
AVGO/NVDA +3%: even the funding shorts got a bid even though they underperformed.
AVGO +3.5%. The Information had an article saying GOOGL turning to Samsung for Future AI Chip capacity. The article said TPU 10 chip could enter mass production as early as 2028 and called out Google working with MediaTek on the design. Some in Slack p...
Give lack of positive news flow/raise, the competitive/margin fears continue to pop up on AVGO despite the LT story being very much intact. Continues to be in funding short bucket with NVDA for now.
Competitive and margin fears continue to arise due to a lack of positive news flow or raises, despite the long-term story remaining intact.
The company continues to be in a funding short bucket alongside NVDA.
The stock continues to be weak following earnings, and despite the long-term bull case appearing intact, the optics are poor when competitors are raising numbers while AVGO is not, creating a vacuum for negative competitive and margin noise.
Mizuho came away more constructive following AI ASIC supply-chain checks, arguing TPU deployments could exceed 35M units by 2028, implying >10x growth from current levels. The firm sees AVGO as the largest beneficiary, where expanding TPU deployments, OpenAI ASIC opportunities, MTIA ramps, and a differentiated full-stack ASIC platform could support a potential $600B+ TPU revenue opportunity by 2028 and alleviate concerns around GPU competition. Investor expectations are too low for the scale of the TPU and custom ASIC opportunity.
AVGO/TPUs/GOOGL: Mizuho Says TPU Wave Is Just Beginning, Sees Significant Upside Across AI Silicon and Memory
Mizuho's positive ASIC supply chain checks suggest TPU deployments could exceed 35 million units by 2028, implying over 10x growth. Expanding TPU deployments, OpenAI ASIC opportunities, MTIA ramps, and a differentiated full-stack ASIC platform could support a potential $600 billion+ TPU revenue opportunity by 2028, alleviating concerns about GPU competition. The overall long-term bull case appears intact, with bulls projecting $140-$150 billion for CY27 and low 30s EPS for 2028, making the stock trade well under 15x if these beliefs hold.
Bulls here still at $140-$150B here for CY27, and in low 30s EPS for 2028; if you believe that, stock trading well under 15x but debate I’ve heard from investors over the past week is whether you want to buy AVGO or NVDA at that multiple (the right answer i...
The stock is still down close to 20% following its print, and despite a strong long-term bull case, the optics are bad when competitors are raising numbers and AVGO is not. There's a lack of catalysts and positive news flow, creating a vacuum for competitive and margin noise to be louder.
The long-term story for the company remains intact, despite near-term uncertainties introduced by competition.
Software revenue accelerated to 15% and the company guided for a significant sequential increase, which translates to an additional $1 EPS annually.
Management provided unusually detailed customer and GW color, including significant commitments from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta, and announced an AI XPV platform with Apollo/Blackstone to deploy over 20GW of compute capacity through 2028.
Infrastructure software showed strong performance, with the FQ3 guide significantly exceeding Street expectations, driven by VCF 9.1, strong server demand, and enterprise AI inferencing workloads.
The decline in FQ3 gross margin guide is due to product mix, not a structural change in semiconductor margins, and management expects gross margins to remain above 74% in the coming quarters with minimal operating expense increases.
The company has become a clean way to invest in the AI infrastructure cycle, with unique exposure to custom XPUs and Ethernet/networking.
Bulls are focused on AI bookings exceeding $30B, a six-customer roadmap, multi-GW commitments, and the extension of the AI opportunity into FY28 and FY29.
The combination of commitments from Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta, Google, two additional customers, and the >20GW XPV platform through 2028 indicates that FY27 is a bridge to a much larger FY28 deployment year.
The company now has three growth vectors: AI semis, software, and non-AI semis, with software reducing concerns about AI impacting VMware and potentially becoming a tailwind as server CPU core counts rise.
The unexpected software beat adds $1 incremental EPS, which at a 20x multiple, contributes $20 to the stock price.
Non-AI semis showed bookings exceeding $6B, suggesting a cyclical recovery.
Management maintained operating margins despite gross margin pressure, supporting the idea that AI mix does not necessarily destroy EPS leverage.
AVGO: Numbers missed very high expectations; Hock Tan with a sub-par call performance only reiterated F27 and spoke of GOOGL competition; but F28 commentary on callbacks positive.
The numbers missed very high expectations, and the CEO's sub-par call performance, coupled with comments about Google competition, introduced uncertainty.
Fast money leaned short due to the Anthropic revenue recognition issue and the shift from racks and chips to just chips, which impacted the Q3 guide.
The F27 outlook of >$100B was merely reiterated, rather than raised, which disappointed buyside expectations.
The FQ3 gross margin guide of ~74% was below Street expectations, and management stated that AI mix is dilutive to corporate gross margin.
Bears worry that as AI semis become a much larger share of revenue, the company's premium margins could be structurally challenged, even if management attributes the decline to mix.
The comment about Google's source diversity fuels the bear case regarding competition from MediaTek and MRVL, despite Google's use of multiple SKUs.
Bears question why the company deserves a higher multiple than NVDA, as it trades at 25x Street FY27 earnings compared to NVDA's mid-teens multiple.
The company's stock outperformed due to the $80 billion Google raise, which positively impacted the TPU supply chain.
JPM raised its FY27 AI backlog estimate for the company to more than $150B from over $120B, citing stronger AI inferencing demand and increasing visibility across Google TPU, Meta MTIA, and OpenAI custom silicon programs.
The firm notes the company's next-generation Tomahawk 6 switching platform is nearly sold out for next year, while incremental upside is emerging from TPU v8i, Meta ASIC ramps, and OpenAI’s XPU efforts.
JPM also expects improving AI shipment trends through 2H26 and sees potential upside to FY27 revenue estimates, with AI revenue now tracking toward roughly $60B.
The analyst remains constructive on the company's positioning across AI ASICs and networking, viewing the company as a key beneficiary of ongoing AI infrastructure spending.
JPM reiterated Overweight and a $500 price target.
In Tech, we have a busy week coming up with Earnings from AVGO, CRWD, CRDO, HPE, GTLB, PANW, CIEN, DOCU and more. Computex continues through the week with keynotes INTC’s Lip Bu Tan, and MRVL CEO. BAML’s and ISI’s TMT conferences start Tuesday as well as th...
AVGO: JPM Raises FY27 AI Backlog View to $150B+, Reiterates Overweight/PT $500
JPM’s supply-chain checks indicate Google may be shifting its TPU v9 program to MediaTek, with the company's TPU v9 design potentially canceled or deferred in favor of extending the current v8 platform.
JPM now models 2028 TPU v9 revenue at ~$25.2bn and total DC ASIC revenue at $29.6bn, up from $10.8bn in 2027, while estimating MediaTek’s solution could be 40- 50% lower cost than the company's.
Packaging yields and the outcome of Google’s v10 TPU RFQ remain key swing factors, with MediaTek, the company, Alchip, and Marvell all participating.
The company's stock saw a 1% increase during regular trading and an additional 1% in post-market trading.
Uncertainty regarding Google's TPU roadmap and potential shifts in inferencing strategy could force a reassessment of the company's long-term positioning and valuation.
Asian press is reporting that MediaTek may have won an xAI ASIC design.
The company was noted as not hitting new highs along with the broader index, despite being an AI semi beta name that led earlier rallies.
The company is viewed as the premium and high-margin ASIC supplier due to its leadership in Google TPU and strong IP/TSMC relationships.
There is positive sentiment suggesting upside to the April quarter results due to strong AI semi shipments and VMW renewals.
JPM now expects total TPU shipments to reach 4.5M/8M units in 2026/27.
UBS raised its price target to $490, citing growing TPU v8/v9 exposure at Google, expanding scale-up Ethernet/networking demand, and a large multi-year META inference partnership as key long-term AI drivers.
UBS still sees AI revenues ramping meaningfully through FY27/FY28 despite near-term revisions to Anthropic estimates.
TSMC/Packaging/AMD: JPM Raises CoWoS Outlook; AMD and AVGO Estimates Moving Higher
UBS raised its price target, remaining positive on the long-term opportunity despite a shift in Anthropic revenue contribution from full-rack systems to a more standard ASIC deployment model, which lowers near-term revenue expectations.
UBS noted that Broadcom's Anthropic revenue contribution is likely shifting from full-rack systems toward a more standard ASIC deployment model, lowering near-term revenue expectations.
The stock saw a significant increase following CSCO's large AI order numbers.
The firm remains constructive on the company.
The firm remains constructive on NVDA, AVGO, and semicap, while recently warming on AMD as AI and CPU demand broaden beyond core accelerators.
The stock declined following a report that OpenAI's AI chip deal with Broadcom faced an $18 billion financing snag.
Broadcom's condition to finance the first phase of chip production, requiring Microsoft to buy roughly 40% of the chips, created a potential problem in negotiations.
The draft chip agreement includes a provision requiring OpenAI to find alternative buyers if Microsoft's purchases fall short.
The stock is being aggressively bought on any minor pullback, indicating strong investor confidence.
Charts are being bought aggressively on any mini-pull back (AVGO, LITE, AMD), plenty of names breaking out to new highs, beats are following through to the upside (NOK, STX, QCOM, WDC, TXN, VRT, INTC), and misses are being bought up (CLS, TER, GLW, ON, AMZN...
Advanced node capacity is moving into a structural shortage by 2027, with demand from AI customers like Broadcom far exceeding supply, leading to pricing power.
Google's TPUv8 reinforces strong attach for ARM-based CPUs and increasing HBM/SRAM content, driving upside across Broadcom.
The firm says advanced node capacity is moving into structural shortage by 2027 (15– 20% gap), with demand far exceeding supply as AI customers (NVDA, AVGO, AMD) compete for allocation. The analyst notes pricing power is set to inflect higher, with N2/A16 w...
AVGO/ARM/MU/CRDO/LITE: Mizuho Highlights TPUv8 as Catalyst for Networking and Memory Upside
The firm says GOOGL’s TPUv8 reinforces strong attach for ARM-based CPUs and increasing HBM/SRAM content, driving upside across AVGO, ARM, and MU. The analyst notes architectural shifts (boardfly topology, OCS, Axion CPUs) improve bandwidth and reduce latenc...
The company is expected to benefit in the near term from copper interconnects extending further than expected in AI networking due to cost and yield advantages.
The company is identified as a leading beneficiary of the broader AI data center interconnect TAM, which could reach ~$22B by 2029.
Mizuho says AI networking is evolving into a hybrid copper-optical paradigm, with copper interconnects extending further than expected (to ~1.6T and potentially 3.2T) due to cost and yield advantages, benefiting CRDO and AVGO in the near term. The firm note...
Meta partnered with Broadcom to co-develop custom AI silicon, extending their partnership to support multiple gigawatts of MTIA.
Bernstein reiterated Outperform, highlighting the expanded multi-year, multi-generation ASIC partnership with Meta as a key strategic positive, extending visibility through at least 2029.
The partnership increasingly includes system-level optimization and R&D collaboration, deepening Broadcom's role beyond pure silicon supply.
JPM reiterated Overweight, stating that the expanded Meta partnership materially improves revenue visibility and reinforces confidence in exceeding prior AI targets.
The deal implies a significant revenue opportunity from Meta, alongside additional ramps from Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI programs.
The deal deepens Broadcom's role across ASICs, networking, and system-level optimization, increasing content per deployment.
AVGO: Bernstein Reiterates Outperform, $525 PT; META ASIC Partnership Expands Long-Term Opportunity
Broadcom partnered with Meta to co-develop custom silicon, securing a massive initial capacity commitment.
Fcb Jul Ml ~Scp @t Dr Ju hp Jun ~Scp &t Dr Feb Jun Hov Hr Hoy Jan Seems normal and expected: Where we go from here in sw is a bit tougher to call; but we're looking at MSFTIORCL which have seen the best relative strength over the last couple weeks to be a t...
Stuff like this has been floating around for a few weeks now so not new (Rubin shipments just get replaced with more Blackwell): Blackwell @xft) We've heard more positive reports in the supply chain as well; for example; Cleveland was out this morning sayin...
There are strong upward revisions to CoWoS demand, driven by TPU v7/v8, with volumes trending higher.
TSM/NVDA/AVGO/AMD: JPM Raises CoWoS/SoIC Outlook; Near-Term AMD&NVDA Trim, ’27 Upside Intact TSM/NVDA/AVGO/AMD JPM CoWoS/SoIC
JPM adds strong upward revisions to AVGO CoWoS (TPU v7/v8 demand), with volumes trending higher. The analyst also sees solid AI pipeline visibility (incl. next-gen “Feynman” GPUs on A16/3D SoIC), while noting modest near-term trims for AMD on MI450 timing (...
The stock showed strong follow-through after recent news involving GOOGL and Anthropic.
AVGO +5% with some nice follow through following the GOOGL/Anthropic news yesterday
The firm believes the upside is now fully reflected in consensus, despite the company's leading position as NVDA’s top AI compute competitor.
Seaport flags two emerging risks: industry capacity constraints that could cap further upside and the company's increasing involvement in customer financing arrangements, which adds balance sheet risk.
The new Google Long-Term Agreement (LTA) is a landmark deal, covering custom silicon and networking for the next four TPU generations through 2031, supporting both external and internal workloads, and is comparable to the serially upsized AVGO-AAPL RF deal.
Anthropic's capacity commitment has scaled rapidly, leading to significantly more confidence in achieving $120B+ in FY27 AI revenues, with TPU and associated networking revenue alone estimated at $80-90B in 2027.
The Google LTA strongly addresses concerns about customer concentration, securing Broadcom's involvement in next-gen TPU design engagements through 2031 and ensuring networking supply.
Broadcom is expected to capture the majority of volumes for TPUv8 "Sunfish" despite MediaTek's "Zebrafish" SKU.
The expansion of Anthropic's next-gen TPU capacity to ~3.5 GW in 2027, exceeding prior expectations, could generate approximately $12B in incremental revenue for Broadcom.
Early price action shows continuing of yesterday: Memory names weaker while large cap tech is outperforming (AVGO /GOOGL/NVDA/MTEA/AMZN/AMD +1.5% while memory/HDDs flat to down), the perception being what is bad for memory is good for hyperscaler ROI. There...
AVGO/GOOGL/NVDA/MTEA/AMZN/AMD +1.5% /HDDs
The company's stock was negatively impacted by Jefferies citing potential TPU project delays with MediaTek, with tape-out now expected mid-May and sampling delays creating execution risk, although long-term engagement remains intact.
The stock held in relatively well despite the broader market weakness, especially given its underperformance compared to leading names since October.
Broadcom indicated supply constraints, with TSMC capacity identified as a bottleneck due to surging AI chip demand, and these constraints are expected to persist through 2026.
Clev is positive on better networking/optics/XPU.
The stock performed well following its earnings report, indicating positive investor reception.
The company is viewed as the premium, best-in-class IP and execution player in the hyperscaler ASIC market.
The stock experienced weakness, consistent with the broader GOOGL complex.
The company is a beneficiary of the rotation from internet mega-cap to semi mega-cap stocks.
AVGO +3.5% / NVDA +2.5% as Megacap had a better bid today…2 names the beneficiaries if rotation from internet mega cap to semi meg cap.
Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to Outperform and set a price target, citing improving visibility into AI-driven growth.
Channel checks indicate significant tensor processing unit shipments by 2028, with additional programs offering upside.
The bull scenario assumes AI revenue roughly doubling by 2027, translating to substantial earnings power.
The analyst can no longer ignore the company's accelerating growth and rising competitiveness in TPUs.
The company holds a significant lead in ASIC technology, positioning it to capture the majority of TPU volumes as Google scales its AI infrastructure.
ORCL -3.4% / MSFT -2.3%: OpenAI weakness as heard Semianalysis was out with a note saying Google is way ahead in locking down power supply in ‘27 and ‘28, the read-through being OpenAI won’t have as much compute available as they are not exposed to TPU. Don...
Demand is not a constraint, with the company having visibility into customer consumption, allowing it to secure sufficient leading-edge supply and advanced packaging capacity.
There is accelerating adoption of custom XPUs over merchant GPUs at scale due to total cost of ownership benefits, with all five customers and two prospects designing hardware.
The company has tens of billions of dollars of AI backlog for delivery over the next 12–15 months, with a significant portion tied to non-XPU networking, and confidence in margins despite rising HBM pricing.
The company's TPU is rapidly closing the compute cost gap with Nvidia, potentially achieving cost parity or slight superiority compared to Nvidia's GB200 NVL72.
Wells Fargo upgrades the stock to Overweight and raises its price target to $430 from $410, citing the recent pullback as an opportunity and increasing visibility of AI-driven revenue acceleration into 2026–2027.
The analyst highlights expanding custom XPU diversification beyond Google TPUs, sustained Ethernet momentum with switching backlog above $10 billion, and total AI semiconductor backlog exceeding $73 billion exiting FY25, supporting a multi-quarter order-to-ship ramp.
OpenAI is co-developing its Titan AI chip with AVGO, which will be made on TSMC’s 3nm process and is expected to launch by the end of 2026.
Chinese authorities have instructed domestic companies to stop using cybersecurity software from U.S. and Israeli firms, including Broadcom-owned VMware, due to national security concerns.
AI Semis / AMD / INTC: KeyBanc raises NVDA/AVGO CoWoS estimates and sees CPU Pricing Firming / Upgrades AMD and INTC on CPU refresh/pricing
The firm notes NVDA’s 2026 CoWoS supply has been lifted to ~650K interposers (+23% vs. prior_.. AVGO’s 2026 CoWoS allocation was raised to ~250K (+30% vs. prior) with OpenAI’s custom ASIC delayed to 1Q27 but lifetime units increased to ~1.5– 2M, adding $8B–...
The company is uniquely positioned to keep pace with NVIDIA’s AI roadmap due to its advantages in XPUs, 3D stacking, 400G SerDes, substrate manufacturing, and production scale, with accelerating TPU demand expected to scale significantly by 2026.
The company is favored as a top pick for 2026 due to persistent AI strength in GPUs and ASICs.
AI strength is expected to persist across GPUs and ASICs (positive NVDA, DELL, AVGO), AI interconnect and optical with scale-up/out/across and 800G/1.6T (positive LITE, CRDO), and continued tailwinds for WFE (positive LRCX) alongside a memory supercycle wit...
Morgan Stanley raised its CoWoS bookings for Broadcom, indicating strong demand for their advanced packaging solutions.
AI Semis/NVDA/AVGO/AMD/CoWoS: Morgan Stanley Raises CoWoS Bookings for NVDA/AVGO, Trims AMD/MSFT Maia; Supply Constraints Still Drive ’26
Morgan Stanley’s Charlie Chan update sCoWoS assumptions, raising NVDA bookings to ~875k (from ~800k) with incremental Non-TSMC allocation and ~40% tied to Rubin, while lifting AVGO to ~280k (from ~235k) and trimming AMD to ~110k (from ~130k), including ~65k...
Buyside was about $20 in FY30 while sell side at 18.50 and most view this as conservative. The one nit being that FY28 guide of 10.65 is actually lower than the street at 11.21. Infra revs were raised from 18/32/73/114/144 to 18/34/77/129/166 from FY 26 - F...
Rapidly expanding AI revenues and custom ASIC leadership.
Significant free cash flow generation projected to triple by FY27.
AVGO Eik 1.4% B NVDA Eik 2%; IB, 'kit In other factors, the bid to shorted names was lacking today as Megacap and HF favorites led the way higher relieving some L/S HF pain from the last couple of weeks: It was the quiet before the start of the big earnings...
NVDA +1.9% JT MS Asia analyst outjust now saying Wistron seeing ~7% raise to their GBZOO rack orders TSM -1% likely on the SamsungITSLA foundry deal although we think that says more about TSM being supply constrained than any mfg advantage Sammy might have...
Semis/IT Spending: JPM CIO Survey Shows Strong AI and Cloud Spending Intentions; NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MRVL Among Top Beneficiaries
Research through 2026-11-02 · 2025-06-27 to 2026-11-02 · 96 source reports.
| Range | Prices through |
|---|---|
| 1W | |
| 1M | |
| 3M | |
| 6M | |
| 1Y | |
| 2Y | |
| 3Y |
Research through 2026-11-03. Artifact validity does not establish factual accuracy or research freshness.