Synthesis refresh pending. Current report evidence is shown below.
The bull case centers on execution progress supports confidence; and guidance and estimates point to upside.
The bear case centers on guidance and estimates leave downside risk; and ai expectations may be too high.
TD Cowen's CEO meetings reinforce that the semi supply/demand imbalance should persist through CY28, with capacity effectively sold out and order activity for 2028 still building.
The product mix is improving as 3800E and 3800F ramp, while higher-throughput tools and upgrade pricing are expected to support significant gross margin expansion over two years, with long-term potential even higher.
CY27 DUV is expected to benefit from immersion mix, and CY28 will shift more toward memory, while the company continues expanding manufacturing flexibility and its Southeast Asia supplier base.
The company's stock declined significantly, taking the brunt of the sell-off after LRCX's guide.
UBS expects Sep rev/EPS of ~$4.12B/$1.21 vs. Street $4.04B/$1.18 and Dec roughly in line at $4.50B/$1.36. Customer conversations are already shifting toward 2028/29, with upside from INTC inspection adoption, Terafab and TSMC A14 capacity, but UBS argues ne...
The company reported solid numbers, with a margin beat and guidance raise driven by productivity upgrades.
Demand now exceeds planned supply for both 2027 and 2028, and higher value-based pricing has been agreed upon with major customers, contributing to revenue next year.
Orders are strengthening across advanced logic and DRAM, with substantial EUV ordering for 2028 and customer interest extending into 2029–30.
The company has more flexibility to increase 2028 system capacity beyond previously implied levels through shorter cycle times, high-NA/R&D bay usage, smart testing, and supply-chain improvements.
Installed Base Management (IBM) revenue significantly exceeded Street expectations, with strong growth and an increased FY26 growth forecast, indicating customers are paying for upgrades that boost wafer capacity.
The software-heavy upgrade mix is a key reason for outperforming margins.
Free cash flow significantly exceeded Street estimates, supporting the strong-order narrative.
The product roadmap shows increased throughput for low-NA and immersion tools, and the high-NA roadmap, which supports both customer capacity and value-based pricing, indicating a revenue opportunity beyond unit growth.
The company recognized one high-NA tool in Q3 and expects one in Q4, with pilot-line Terafab shipments expected in 2027.
Upgrade strength: Installed Base Management (IBM) revenue reached €3.29B, up 68% y/y and 13% above Street, with Q4 stepping up again to €3.7B. FY26 IBM growth is now ~50%, up from ~30%. Customers are paying to extract more wafer capacity from existing tools...
The company's High NA technology has transitioned from a scientific project to a production tool, with Intel achieving significant wafer throughput and matching or exceeding low NA results.
Fleet availability for High NA tools has significantly improved, indicating increased reliability and operational efficiency.
Bears will point to the systems miss and a small bump to FY26 revenues, arguing that FY27 numbers will not move much.
The 2027 low-NA capacity plan remains below bull expectations, with lead times limiting material changes to the 2027 build plan.
System revenue missed Street expectations, with logic significantly below and memory slightly above, and the reported EPS beat was overstated by an equity-investment gain.
Q4 gross margin is guided down sequentially due to more dry-system shipments, capacity-ramp costs, hiring, and FX, despite higher revenue from low-NA EUV, immersion, and upgrades.
FY26 non-EUV growth was reduced, indicating a softer near-term non-EUV revenue forecast despite strong immersion demand.
BofA believes ASML's CY26 guide implies materially higher EUV/ArFi average selling prices in the second half of the year, supporting durable mix and gross margin upside despite concerns about EUV capacity.
BofA models low-NA EUV ASPs rising to approximately €245–247 million in Q3/Q4 and immersion to approximately €85–89 million, with Q4 gross margin exceeding 57%, which could drive significant upgrades to CY27–28 EPS.
ASML's capacity is expected to grow by approximately 30% in CY27/28, and IBM/service revenue remains another high-margin tailwind.
The company will raise prices by 10% across replacement parts for EUV and DUV systems supplied to Korea starting January 2027, and is discussing price increases for new equipment.
TER -4.7%; KLAC -2.8%; LRCX -2.9%; AMAT -1.9%; ASML -1.7% sold off into ASML’s print Wednesday, even as Jefferies’ preview for TSM -2% (reports Thursday) took TSM capex to $85B in FY27 and $100B in FY28 from $62B this year on 10%+ blended wafer price hikes.
The company is expected to report strong 3Q revenue and EPS, exceeding consensus estimates.
Strong visibility, order trends, and easing supply constraints could lead to significantly higher EUV shipments in 2027, driving growth above FY26 and current Street expectations.
The analyst's FY27/28 EPS estimates are above consensus, indicating a more optimistic outlook.
ASML: JPM sees robust demand, says FY27 growth could exceed FY26 and Street
JPM expects 3Q revenue of €11.64B (+65% y/y) and EPS of €10.84, ~3% above consensus, with GM ~56.1%. More importantly, strong visibility/order trends and easing supply constraints could let ASML ship materially more EUV in 2027, driving growth above FY26 an...
The company's stock was bid higher due to reports that TSMC is considering a second US campus with six advanced-node fabs, which would increase demand for semicap equipment.
UBS identified the company as a top pick, anticipating a strong backlog update and an above-consensus fiscal year 2027 guide.
ASML's previously outlined 110-unit Low-NA EUV capacity for 2028 is not a physical supply cap but reflects current assumptions, with room to expand further if strong demand persists.
Revenue for 2026 is fully covered, 2027 EUV orders are largely booked, and ASML is already taking 2028 orders with customer down payments, indicating robust and sustained demand.
Value-based pricing increases are expected to begin in 2027/28, which should further boost revenue and profitability.
Demand remains very strong, with robust 2028 order activity and multiple new fabs coming online in 2027.
Memory is expected to become a bigger driver as Micron ramps EUV and DRAM intensity rises.
Recently announced price increases across Immersion DUV and Low-NA EUV should hit the P&L mainly from 2028 and be directly accretive to gross margins.
The company is exploring output above 110 EUV systems in 2028, with High-NA adoption and improving system cycle times providing further capacity and mix upside.
ASML: JPM says demand remains very strong, with 2028 pricing and mix supporting further margin upside
JPM says ASML is seeing no demand hesitation, with strong 2028 order activity and multiple new fabs coming online in 2027, while memory should become a bigger driver
TSMC has committed to adopting ASML’s ~$400M High-NA EUV tools from 2030, with Samsung targeting 2028, removing a key adoption overhang after TSMC had previously questioned the economics.
An industry push toward 12-inch photomasks could boost High-NA throughput by ~40%, materially improving productivity/cost and supporting a broader High-NA ramp across logic and memory.
Barclays says the expanded High-NA collaboration with TSMC, Samsung, and Intel materially improves visibility on adoption and should make ASML more comfortable planning additional EUV capacity.
Samsung targets High-NA DRAM HVM in 2028, TSMC plans HVM from 2030 with a larger-mask roadmap into 2031–33, and Intel is already using High-NA on selected 18A Panther Lake layers.
Barclays views the announcements as positive because they reduce the risk that High-NA slips indefinitely and could eventually shift ASML from a perceived WFE laggard back toward stronger growth.
The stock has fallen 13.0% from its high, indicating a substantial downturn.
| Basket | Since Leopold Low | Semis | Ticker | % Off High | | :-------------------- | :---------------- | :------ | :----- | :--------- | | Global Memory | 20.7% | | NVDA | -11.9% | | AMZN Trainium Infra | 19.8% | | ANET | -12.4% | | Neoclouds/Miners | 19....
The company is expected to benefit significantly from Intel's increased capital raise, as Intel is a key customer for High-NA EUV technology.
Lithography equipment, a core product for ASML, is a major, long-lead-time item in fab construction, meaning it is ordered early in the tooling process.
BofA reiterated Buy and a €2,452 price objective, stating that rising investment in lithography start-ups validates the bottleneck but is unlikely to disrupt ASML this decade.
Most challengers are targeting improved EUV sources rather than replacing ASML’s full scanner stack, and ASML’s roadmap toward over 500 wafers per hour by 2035 should further raise switching costs.
Many emerging technologies could ultimately complement ASML, and a vertically integrated challenger remains a longer-term risk rather than a meaningful threat this decade.
Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating, citing new EUV tools, immersion demand, and capacity support for medium-term upside.
The threat from Chinese domestic lithography tools is likely overstated, as local suppliers struggle to match the throughput and maturity of the company's systems.
JPM acknowledges the development raises long-term China risk, but says the current selloff reflects headline-driven multiple compression rather than a change in ASML’s earnings trajectory.
JPM notes China has built lower-end i-line systems for years without affecting ASML’s front-end share and says ASML itself required roughly a decade to move EUV from a working tool to high-volume production.
JPM commented that the near-term risk to ASML appears to be more sentiment-driven rather than an actual hit to numbers, as the Chinese systems would need to demonstrate stability, yield, and throughput for high-volume manufacturing.
The stock declined after reports indicated that a Chinese state-backed company began mass production of homegrown DUV chip tools, a significant step in China's efforts to reduce reliance on foreign technology.
JPM was out commenting saying near-term risk to ASML appears more sentiment-driven (rather than any hit to #s) until the systems demonstrate the stability, yield and throughput required for high-volume manufacturing, also noting semi specialist feedback lar...
The company reported a significant beat on revenue and gross margins, with raised full-year guidance and strong capacity expansion plans for EUV and immersion DUV tools.
The company's 2027 EUV tool capacity projections are slightly below the high expectations held by some investors.
RBC reiterated an Outperform rating and raised its price target, expecting EUV shipments to recover significantly as foundry and memory investment strengthens.
There is potential upside from increased investment by major players like Intel, Samsung, and TSMC.
The firm models a modest beat for the second quarter, indicating solid performance.
Tight supply, customer productivity benefits, and strong customer profitability create room for price increases, which could boost both revenue and margins.
Non-EUV demand is expected to remain stable, and China exposure appears largely de-risked.
Pricing and EUV shipment upside are identified as key catalysts for the stock.
The stock experienced a decline, consistent with broader weakness in the semiconductor capital equipment sector.
Bernstein raised its price target to €2,300, arguing that accelerating adoption of High-NA EUV and rising lithography intensity will drive stronger long-term equipment demand.
The firm expects DRAM manufacturers to adopt High-NA ahead of logic beginning in 2027, with logic following in 2028-30.
Bernstein forecasts lithography intensity to rise from 24% in 2025 to 26% in 2028.
The firm increased its ASML estimates, now expecting EUV revenue to reach approximately €42.7B by 2030, with further upside from expanding EUV capacity and sustained AI-driven investment in advanced logic and memory.
Bernstein expects DRAM manufacturers to adopt High-NA EUV earlier than logic, starting in 2027, with lithography intensity projected to increase significantly by 2028.
FundaAI views ASML as a primary beneficiary through continued HBM capacity expansion and advanced-node EUV demand, supported by South Korea's massive AI investment plan.
While AMAT remains its top pick, the firm sees ASML as an attractive catch-up opportunity after significant underperformance, expecting upcoming results to highlight improving demand visibility into 2027 and help rebuild confidence in low-NA EUV capacity utilization.
While AMAT remains its top pick, the firm sees ASML as an attractive catch-up opportunity after significant underperformance, expecting upcoming results to highlight improving demand visibility into 2027 and help rebuild confidence in low-NA EUV capacity ut...
In Tech, semis are leading the way higher with INTC (+5%) up on a dbl ug at BofA, Memory following Asia strength overnight (SNDK/MU +3-5%), and semicaps looking to be the first AI semi group to be regaining 52wk highs (ASML/AMAT +5%).
The company's stock price increased significantly, indicating strong performance within the semicap sector.
The company is benefiting from number raises to WFE estimates from the street, suggesting a positive outlook for the wafer fabrication equipment market.
The company's valuation is disconnected from its earnings growth potential, which bulls believe is substantial given the memory/AI supply story.
Bulls believe that bottleneck noise is overplayed, as higher-throughput lithography platforms will prevent ASML from capping the ramp, allowing total WFE to continue climbing.
In Tech, Semis +8% led the way higher with SOX crossing back above ST moving averages. Despite the index still being 3-4% below its highs, we’re already seeing some individual names/themes breakout: Semicap continues its strength with names like LRCX, AMAT...
Semicap strong: LRCX, AMAT, ASML after several number raises to WFE estimates from the street earlier in the week. Talked a little about the set up on Monday in case you missed it:
The stock rose after Elon Musk called it the greatest company in Europe and was invited to speak about Terafab. Bulls believe that higher-throughput lithography platforms mean ASML will not cap the ramp, allowing total Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) to keep climbing to $250 billion and beyond.
ASML +6% as Elon called it the greatest company in Europe and co. invite him to speak about Terafab. Other semicaps strong with AMAT +9%/LRCX +8%. Nothing to dislike in this group here as bulls continue to see a big disconnect between valuation and where ea...
If WFE goes to $250B in 2028, then implies AMAT multiple near 15x. Bulls think bottleneck noise is overplayed as higher-throughput litho platforms mean ASML won’t cap the ramp, so total WFE can keep climbing to 250B and beyond.
JPM raised its price target to €1,900 from €1,515, arguing that consensus materially underestimates both EUV and DUV demand through 2028.
The firm models EUV shipments of 90/105 units in 2027/28, exceeding street expectations, and forecasts DUV immersion demand of 200/210 units, driven by strength from China capacity additions and non-China leading-edge ramps.
JPM’s 2027/28 revenue forecasts are 17%/22% above consensus, with EPS estimates 32%/35% higher, supported by rising tool ASPs and margin expansion.
Valuation is attractive, as ASML trades below its historical multiple range despite a stronger long-term earnings outlook.
Morgan Stanley raised its price target to €1,660 from €1,400 and reiterated Overweight, arguing investor concerns around EUV capacity are overshadowing the earnings opportunity.
The firm now expects ASML to ship 90 EUV tools next year and raised its FY28 forecast to 104 systems, citing management commentary that demand can be met without additional cleanroom expansion.
Memory LTAs are an important structural change, improving visibility, reducing cyclicality, and supporting more disciplined capacity planning across the memory ecosystem.
These factors, combined with stronger memory pricing and foundry capex, suggest ASML’s earnings power is underappreciated.
ASML: JPM Raises PT to €1,900, Says Street Is Too Low on 2027-28 Estimates
Discussions with management reinforced strong visibility for EUV, immersion, and DRAM-related demand into the latter half of the decade.
EUV capacity is expected to ramp significantly, with improving order momentum supported by long-term agreements and prepayments.
DRAM is increasingly seen as a major long-term driver for EUV as layer counts increase.
The company is experiencing stronger throughput/ASP trends, increasing High-NA adoption, and continued AI-driven demand supporting both logic and memory investment cycles.
Management reiterated that ASML does not expect to be an industry bottleneck, with planned EUV capacity and flexibility to exceed targets.
There is improving visibility into 2028 demand, accelerating litho intensity across logic and DRAM, and continued confidence in High-NA adoption timelines.
Stronger China demand, increasing installed base/service opportunities, and a more diversified customer base support the long-term growth outlook.
ASML: JPM Says EUV/Immersion Demand Visibility Remains Strong Into 2030
The stock performed strongly, indicating positive market sentiment.
The CEO stated that strong AI demand will make chips a supply-limited market for an extended period.
Semi-cap strong today: ASML +6%; AMAT +4% finally getting a bid after last week’s strong earnings (sent out recap from their appearance at JPM earlier)
The stock performed strongly, indicating positive sentiment in the semicaps sector.
Semicaps strong: ASML +7%, AMAT +4% among others
The company's Q1 gross margin was at the high end of guidance, and operating margin was solid, exceeding street expectations.
EBIT and EPS for Q1 both exceeded consensus estimates.
ASML raised its FY26 revenue guidance, indicating strong growth expectations for both EUV and non-EUV, with DUV now expected to be roughly flat instead of declining.
2i PINS , SNAP , UBER, TTD, WIX #q We're not reading too much into the narratives we heard out there today trying to explain software vS. semi outperformance: "omg, what did Jensen say on Dwarkesh?" "ASML sell the news what does is NAND this mean for TSM" "...
Q1 China sales declined to their lowest level since 1Q23.
The Q2 guide for sales and gross margin was relatively weak, with sales midpoint below consensus and gross margin slightly below consensus.
Implied EBIT for Q2 is expected to be below consensus.
Wolfe raised its WFE outlook, tracking 22-23% growth in CY26/27, driven by DRAM and leading-edge logic demand, with the supply/demand imbalance likely persisting through 2028.
The firm highlighted cleanroom capacity, not demand, as the key constraint, which limits near-term upside but extends the cycle duration, and expects DRAM and logic wafers to outstrip available capacity through 2027, pushing incremental spend into 2028.
The company is a close second pick for Wolfe, benefiting from sustained AI-driven capex and extended spending visibility.
AMAT/ASML: Wolfe Raises WFE Outlook; Cleanroom Constraints Extend Cycle
BofA raised its 2030E EPS range after its US semis team upgraded global semiconductor demand estimates to $2 trillion by 2030, driven by stronger AI demand across DRAM, NAND, and Logic/MPU.
The simulation assumes 12-14% WFE intensity, 25% litho intensity, 92.5% market share, and 56-60% gross margins on €44-60 billion in 2030E revenue, which is approximately 33% above company guidance.
Citi expects inline 1Q revenue and 2Q to be slightly ahead of consensus, with management guiding towards the top end of €34-39bn for 2026.
AI-driven demand remains strong, as evidenced by SK Hynix's €8bn order in March.
A cross-party group of U.S. politicians has proposed a law to impose further restrictions on exports of computer chipmaking equipment to China, which would affect ASML.
Citi removed its positive short-term call due to the risk of the MATCH Act, which would block DUV immersion sales and servicing in China, a market that constituted a high-teens percentage of ASML's 2025 sales.
The proposed legislation is considered a blunt instrument that would impact all equipment makers with significant China exposure and likely provoke retaliation from China regarding rare earth exports.
Despite strong AI-driven demand, the overhang from export controls warrants caution in the near term.
BofA expects management to narrow CY26 revenue growth guidance and anticipates a raise in EUV capacity exiting CY27, driven by DRAM capacity additions and high-NA progress.
The firm expects a Q4 Capital Markets Day where the company could raise its 2030 revenue guide.
Barclays favors ASML in the near-term due to the ongoing shift in positioning towards semiconductors over software, with strong sentiment and institutional exposure.
The firm expects ASML to largely reiterate Q1 expectations, indicating stable performance.
ASML/SAP: Barclays Says Too Early to Rotate Back Into Software, but SAP Offers More LT Upside
Longer-term, however, Barclays sees substantially more upside in SAP — +135% to €430 vs. +55% for ASML on 2030 numbers — arguing the market hasn’t yet priced in a bull case for AI-driven workflow orchestration. Both remain key OW positions across European p...
IGV -24%, with HF long-short ratios at ~2x for semis vs. ~1x for software and LO exposure rotating to 13% semis (from 10% a year ago) vs. 8% software. The firm expects ASML to largely reiterate Q1 expectations while SAP’s CCB growth slows to ~24%, and sees...
The real upside to the company's estimates comes from DUV tools, as the memory industry shifts to a capacity-build environment requiring more DUV per EUV tool.
The ratio of DUV tools per EUV tool is expected to re-expand as new memory campuses come online in FY27, potentially driving FY27/28 sales and EPS significantly above consensus in a bull scenario.
JPM believes FY27/28 sales could be in the mid-teens above street expectations in a bullish scenario.
ASML +65bps despite a bullish note by JPM saying the real upside to ASML estimates isn’t EUV but DUV tools, as the memory industry shifts from a technology-transition cycle to a capacity-build environment that requires far more DUV per EUV tool. They think...
Cantor raised price targets across semi equipment companies, noting continued improvement in demand and reinforcing a multi-year upcycle.
Lithography checks indicate approximately 25% growth with strong OEM demand.
Cantor raised wafer fab equipment (WFE) estimates to $140 billion in CY26 and $175 billion in CY27, and introduced a $200 billion CY28 view.
The analyst sees expanding earnings power into CY27/28, supporting continued upside.
AMAT/ASML/KLAC/LRCX: Cantor Raises PTs; Demand Strengthening, WFE Outlook Moving Higher
Supply constraints, specifically in cleanroom capacity, are capping near-term upside.
SK Hynix's filing for EUV tool purchases suggests an uptick in shipment estimates for 2026-27 compared to prior updates.
The company significantly exceeded booking expectations, indicating strong demand in the semi-cap sector.
Management highlighted strong progress with customers and Intel accepting the first high-volume manufacturing tool, demonstrating successful execution and customer adoption.
The CEO noted a notably more positive assessment of the medium-term market situation from customers, primarily driven by robust expectations for the sustainability of AI-related demand, which is reflected in a significant increase in their medium-term capacity plans and the company's record order intake.
The CY26E GM guide of 51-53% was slightly below expectations due to product mix, specifically a higher proportion of 3600D versus 3800E in EUV, fewer HBM upgrades, and more dry tools.
The company is viewed positively by Semianalysis due to anticipated spending from TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.
Semi-cap/ASML/KLAC: Hearing Semianalysis positive on the group given TSMC/Samsung/INTC spend
Research through 2026-10-26 · 2026-01-09 to 2026-10-26 · 44 source reports.
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Historical bull thesis: ASML’s scarce lithography capacity, rising pricing power, and improving tool economics support durable growth and margin expansion into 2028.
Historical bear thesis: Execution and valuation remain exposed to shipment limits, weaker near-term economics, and policy or positioning shocks that could defer expected upside.
Research through 2026-11-03. Artifact validity does not establish factual accuracy or research freshness.